Why AI Benchmarks Are Lying to You - with Wenhu Chen (Meta/University of Waterloo)

In this episode, we talked with Daniel Litt, a mathematician at the University of Toronto. In March 2025, Daniel bet that AI would not be able to autonomously produce an Annals of Mathematics-level paper by 2030. He has since conceded. He told us what changed and why. The models became superhuman at a small set of skills, like knowing the entire literature and grinding through technical arguments, and that turned out to be enough to do real math. They are still weak at the fuzzy part of the job, like figuring out what is actually true about an object or which questions are worth asking. We also got into how anyone can check a proof that no human has read yet, and what a Lean formalization does and doesn't guarantee. Daniel thinks prestige and credit in math are dead, and that we will have to judge people through thesis defenses and seminars rather than through PDFs. He explains why he thinks math got Goodharted and why the labs put so much effort into it in the first place. We finished with listener questions, including how to teach kids math now and whether P vs NP might be just one idea away. Topics - Why Daniel conceded his AI math bet - What models are superhuman at in math, and where they fall short - Why AI won't "solve math" - Checking AI-written proofs and the limits of Lean - Why different models keep proving the same results - How Daniel uses AI in his own research - Evaluating mathematicians when prestige and credit are dead - Why math got "Goodharted" - AI labs, race dynamics and publication norms - Teaching kids math, and P vs NP 00:00 Intro 00:15 The bet Daniel conceded 03:23 What AI is good and bad at in math 08:13 Will AI solve all of math? 11:37 Why we still need human mathematicians 13:59 Math is about understanding, not only proof 21:26 Axioms, foundations and Lean 27:42 How do you check an AI-written proof? 31:22 When models cheat 36:18 Are all the models proving the same things? 39:51 How Daniel uses AI in his own research 45:20 "Prestige and credit are dead" 49:58 AI risk and social upheaval 51:38 Is math special, or did it get Goodharted? 57:45 Why the labs care about math 59:54 PR, race dynamics and the pause 1:06:49 Would Daniel join a lab? 1:07:53 Listener questions: can understanding be formalized? 1:12:05 Teaching kids math with AI around 1:15:38 P vs NP and the Riemann hypothesis 1:17:37 Wrap-up Music: "Kid Kodi" by Blue Dot Sessions (CC BY-NC 4.0)

In this episode of the the information bottleneck podcast, we talked with Andy Hall, a Stanford professor and MTS at Anthropic. The conversation explores the political economy of AGI, analyzing how superintelligence could reshape job markets, wealth redistribution, and public trust in government. Hall presents an optimistic view that hyperintelligent agents could enhance democracy by helping citizens make better political decisions, likening AI's potential impact to the invention of the printing press. The discussion also covers the challenges of regulating open-source models, the origins and mitigation of ideological biases in AI, and the geopolitical implications of the AI race between the US and adversaries like China. List of TopicsThe definition of the political economy of superintelligence and its potential to improve civic decision-making. The future of work, the likelihood of white-collar job loss, and the role of the existing tax system in wealth redistribution. Public skepticism toward AI, the decline of trust in the US government, and the contrast between AI power users and the general public. The tension between personal freedom and collective safety regarding open-source and open-weight AI models. Using AI tools to assist legislators in drafting policy and auditing frontier AI models. The geopolitical AI race, the threat of state-run hacking groups, and the challenges for middle-power countries. Center-left ideological biases in current AI models, their roots in training data and reinforcement learning, and experiments to fine-tune models with alternative viewpoints. The concept of AI constitutions, market competition over model values, and the risks of government intervention. AI-driven astroturfing on social media, ungovernable AI swarms, and the debate over regulatory "kill switches". Timeline00:14 - Introduction of Andy Hall and an overview of the political economy of superintelligence. 05:38 - Discussion on the future of work, potential mass unemployment, and the political backlash of job loss during periods of economic growth. 11:41 - Analysis of public hostility toward AI, drawing analogies to the regulation of social media. 19:26 - The role of existing tax systems in wealth redistribution and the political dynamics of state versus federal taxation. 27:31 - The debate over open-source models, balancing the desire for personal AI agents with national cyber risk concerns. 33:10 - How AI can aid government bureaucracy, specifically in writing complex legislation and overseeing tech labs. 46:25 - The geopolitical implications of AI, the race against China, and the threat of state-run hacking organizations like the Lazarus Group. 51:38 - Examination of political biases in AI models, including Hall's lab experiments in fine-tuning models to hold conservative views. 1:02:38 - Discussion on model constitutions, the distinction between a "soul document" and a true political constitution, and the regulation of AI values. 1:13:19 - The rise of AI astroturfing in politics, botnets, and whether "kill switch" legislation is a practical solution. 1:19:40 - Theoretical discussions on the future of automated law enforcement, robot armies, and AI's impact on class mobility. Music - "Kid Kodi" - Blue Dot Sessions - via Free Music Archive - CC BY-NC 4.0

John Platt is a Google Fellow and leads the Applied Science team at Google Research, the group working on climate and science. He's also the person behind SMO and Platt scaling. In this episode, we talk with him about how Google decides which scientific problems are worth its time, and what happens when AI meets real physical systems. A big part of the conversation is contrails. A small share of flights creates most of the warming from contrails, which together add up to roughly 1% of human-caused warming. John explains how his team detects contrails from weather satellites and predicts where they will form. In trials with American Airlines, rerouting flights cut contrail formation by 62% with almost no extra fuel. We also get into ERA, Google's empirical research assistant, and where AI agents actually help scientists. John sees them taking over the drudgery of building models and munging data, while humans keep the taste and the rigor. He shares why he's skeptical of gradient-free optimization, why the bitter lesson runs into energy and data center limits, and why physical AI that makes manufacturing cheaper could matter a lot for climate. We finish with FireSat, a satellite constellation (about 50 satellites at full scale) designed to catch wildfires while they're still small enough to put out. Timeline 00:00 Intro 01:09 How Google picks science problems: comparative advantage 04:15 Projects that didn't work: RNA aptamers and tool/problem fit 05:46 DNA, RNA and XNA 07:41 Contrails and why they warm the planet 13:01 Three AI systems for avoiding contrails 15:23 Cloud seeding and why cloud physics is hard 18:17 Airline trials: 62% fewer contrails 19:46 Navier-Stokes, wind tunnels and where simulation still fails 25:07 Will agents replace scientists? ERA and scorable tasks 31:36 Overfitting, Kaggle and the half-pixel bug 33:41 Agents that exploit bugs: Lean and Goodhart's law 36:45 Gradient-free optimization 38:53 SMO, SVMs and hinge loss in neural networks 42:12 The bitter lesson and the limits of scaling 43:36 Where agents will help science in the next 12 months 45:13 Robotics and making climate tech cheaper to build 48:22 AI risk and misuse 50:51 Climate outlook: past 2°C 54:39 Why AI won't just solve climate change 57:04 Room-temperature superconductors, fusion and HVDC 1:02:25 FireSat: detecting wildfires from orbit 1:05:16 Why existing satellites aren't enough 1:07:53 The economics of 50 satellites 1:09:34 False positives 1:11:16 Closing Topics Comparative advantage as the test for which science problems Google takes on Contrails: the physics, the AI pipeline, and the American Airlines trials ERA and AI agents for scientific software What scientists still do that agents can’t: taste, creativity, rigor Overfitting, Goodhart’s law, and agents exploiting bugs Gradient-free methods, SMO, and hinge loss The bitter lesson and the physical limits of scaling Climate outlook, fusion, and physical AI Room-temperature superconductors and long-distance power transmission FireSat and early wildfire detection Music - "Kid Kodi" - Blue Dot Sessions - via Free Music Archive - CC BY-NC 4.0

Yuandong Tian spent many years at Meta FAIR and recently left to co-found Recursive Superintelligence, a company building AI that improves itself. In this episode, he tells us why. We start with his work on computer Go, where he built DarkForest before AlphaGo came out. A few years later came OpenGo, which played Korean professionals on a single GPU and didn't lose a game. He then tried to bring RL to real-world problems and found that the design of the action space mattered more than the algorithm. We also talk about Coconut, his paper on reasoning in latent space instead of tokens, and why frontier models still aren't trained that way. The second half is about recursive self-improvement. Yuandong wrote his last paper at Meta together with GPT-5 and says it made him 6 to 10 times faster. That convinced him his own job could be replaced within five years. We ask him where agents still fall short and whether a new architecture can really beat transformers at scale. He also gives his view on the calls to restrict self-improving AI and makes the case for open source. Recursive is hiring in San Francisco and London: [email protected] Topics * Computer Go: DarkForest, AlphaGo and OpenGo * Gradient-free optimization * Action space design and neural architecture search * Coconut and reasoning in latent space * Understanding how neural networks learn representations * Grokking, and writing a paper with GPT-5 * Recursive self-improvement and coding agents * New architectures vs. transformers * The NanoGPT speedrun * Data efficiency and robotics * Restricting self-improving AI * Open source models Timeline 0:00 Intro 0:45 From CMU to deep learning, and the AlexNet debates 5:35 AlphaGo and beating Go pros on a single GPU 10:27 Gradient-free optimization 13:16 Diffusion models and diversity 16:23 RL on real problems: why the action space matters 20:34 AutoML and architecture search 22:05 Coconut and reasoning in latent space 26:07 Why latent reasoning hasn't caught on 30:36 Adapting research to the LLM era 34:04 Why he left Meta to work on recursive self-improvement 37:10 Do we still need humans? 39:37 Where agents fall short 43:08 Can new architectures beat transformers at scale? 47:29 The hardest part of research to automate 50:16 What comes next for AI 52:52 Should self-improving AI be restricted? 54:11 Open source models 56:43 Hiring at Recursive Music - "Kid Kodi" - Blue Dot Sessions - via Free Music Archive - CC BY-NC 4.0

Chris Manning is a legend in NLP. He's a professor of linguistics and computer science at Stanford and ran the Stanford AI Lab. His course CS224N, Natural Language Processing with Deep Learning, is where a whole generation of researchers learned the field. If you've worked on anything in NLP over the last 25 years, you've probably used his work. We start with what linguistics gave machine learning that ML wouldn't have figured out on its own, and what's left for NLP researchers now that LLMs handle most of the classic tasks. Chris thinks the open problems have moved up the stack to pragmatics and dialogue. Models are good at using context but still sound confident when they shouldn't. Then we get into his recent work on how language models learn verb classes. Small GPT-2 models seem to form abstract categories right away instead of memorizing verbs one at a time, and Chris explains why distributed representations push them in that direction. The second half is about meaning and representation. Chris makes the case that Yann LeCun underrates the role of language in intelligence, and revisits his debate with Emily Bender over whether text alone can teach meaning. We finish with ReFT, which steers a frozen model by editing its hidden states, and whether concepts really live in linear subspaces. Timeline 00:00 Intro 01:05 What linguistics gave machine learning 03:27 Is NLP losing its focus on language? 06:29 What's left for NLP researchers in the LLM era 09:37 The next frontier: pragmatics and dialogue 13:01 Constructed languages and AI-to-AI communication 15:35 Do language models learn categories first? 23:43 Why transformers learn abstractions early 26:37 Does it hold at scale? 28:30 LeCun, JEPA and the role of language in intelligence 34:54 Can text alone teach meaning? The octopus debate 40:45 Diffusion language models vs transformers 43:39 ReFT: editing representations instead of weights 50:34 Weights or representations: where knowledge lives 52:37 Do concepts really live in linear subspaces? Topics NLP, computational linguistics, large language models, learning dynamics, meaning from form, world models, JEPA, diffusion LMs, ReFT, representation learning, interpretability Music "Kid Kodi" - Blue Dot Sessions - via Free Music Archive - CC BY-NC 4.0