Why Australians Are Scared To Buy Property Right Now | Mark Bouris & Nerida Conisbee
Property Insights with Mark BourisShow Notes
Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at Ray White, joins Mark Bouris on Property Insights to unpack what is really happening in the Australian property market, and where prices could be heading next. With interest rates rising, consumer sentiment falling, investors pulling back and the latest Federal Budget creating more uncertainty, the property market is at an important turning point. Nerida shares Ray White's latest data on buyer activity, explains why open home numbers have fallen sharply, and reveals why she believes national property prices are unlikely to fall more than 5% from peak to trough. The conversation goes deeper into what actually determines property values, the role banks and borrowing capacity play in setting prices, and why construction costs could ultimately put a floor under the market. Nerida also explains why population growth and jobs remain critical drivers of regional property markets, what has transformed places like the Gold Coast and Geraldton, and how infrastructure such as train stations, public transport, retail precincts and proximity to water can influence long-term property values. She also gives her view on Melbourne, houses versus apartments, interest rates, unemployment, rental supply and the potential impact of fewer investors entering the market. If you're a homeowner, investor, first home buyer or simply trying to understand where the Australian property market is heading, this episode is packed with insights into what the data is actually telling us. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Wages went up. So why does every household still feel worse off? Stephen Koukoulas, economist and founder of Market Economics, sits down with Mark Bouris to answer that question with numbers that are hard to argue with. Prices have risen around 14 per cent over the past three years. Wages have grown roughly 10 per cent. The gap is real, it is compounding, and it is sitting in every Australian budget right now. This episode goes well beyond the monthly headline inflation figure. Koukoulas and Bouris work through the mechanics of how falling property prices tighten bank lending, why services inflation in rent, insurance and council rates is proving so stubborn, and why the Reserve Bank's hands may be more constrained than most people realise. They also name something most commentators are reluctant to say out loud: that getting inflation back to 2.5 per cent may require a hard landing. If you want to understand what is actually happening in the Australian economy right now, and what it means for your mortgage, your savings and your job, this is the conversation to watch. Topics covered Why prices up 14 per cent and wages up 10 per cent leaves a real deficit in household purchasing power How bracket creep quietly takes a slice of every pay rise before it reaches your account The compounding effect: how $100 in groceries became $114 in three years Falling property prices, tighter bank lending and the self-reinforcing cycle that worries Koukoulas The 23 per cent jump in property listings and what it signals about seller confidence Why services inflation in rent, insurance, school fees and council rates is the stickiest part of the problem Copper, lithium and commodity prices as a hidden inflation driver most people are not watching The case for and against a recession as the only remaining path to 2.5 per cent inflation Whether the RBA's updated mandate on full employment has reduced its room to move What rising unemployment above 5 per cent would actually mean for households, banks and the federal budget Subscribe to Property Insights with Mark Bouris for weekly conversations with Australia's leading property, finance and economic minds. Find your local Yellow Brick Road broker: www.yellowbrickroad.com.au See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.