Noah Smith & Matt Yglesias on the Electric Technology Crisis, China, and America's Future

This week, we're republishing a conversation Noah Smith and Matt Yglesias hosted live on Substack this past Monday. They revisit a wide-ranging conversation on the transformative role of electric motors, batteries, and industrial policy in a politically polarized era, touching on the history of energy, global economic competition, AI regulation, the Inflation Reduction Act, Democratic strategy, and the need to redefine America’s identity amid demographic shifts.

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RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE:

Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠

Slow Boring: https://www.slowboring.com/podcast

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TAKEAWAYS:

America's Strategic Blindness: The US had momentum with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which Noah calls "great industrial policy" that was working. However, because it was framed primarily as climate policy rather than technological/economic competition, Republicans killed it for culture war reasons, failing to understand its strategic importance.

The Climate Framing Problem: Matt was prescient in warning that framing industrial policy purely through climate would create Republican backlash. Noah admits Matt was right - while climate messaging helped pass the IRA initially, it made the policies vulnerable to being seen as "just some climate thing" rather than crucial economic policy.

The Obama Era Split: They trace how the 2000s gave their generation the "peace and love" progressive agenda (gay marriage, ending Iraq War), while the 2010s brought the "angry leftist" phase (riots, racial grievance politics) - unlike boomers who got both simultaneously.

Missing the Bush Playbook: During Bush's cascading failures (Iraq, Katrina, financial crisis), Democrats effectively built a broad coalition and defined clear opposition. Today, despite Trump's obvious failures (tariffs, debt, vaccine skepticism), Democrats aren't capitalizing similarly.

Narrow Target Strategy: Like successful campaigns in Australia, Democrats need to edit down their message to core critiques of Republican governance rather than trying to advance every progressive priority simultaneously.

Big Tent Revival: The party succeeded in 2006-2008 by recruiting diverse candidates and standing behind pro-gun, even some pro-life Democrats to clarify what the core message was versus peripheral issues.