Tony Greer: Banana Skins & Moon Shots | Waiting for the Bond Market to Capitulate
The Competent InvestorShow Notes
Tom welcomes back trader Tony Greer to the show. Tony describes the current market as one of the most challenging environments he's ever navigated. He explains that a "perfect storm" of colliding weather systems is making trading exceptionally difficult. Elevated energy prices, driven by conflict with Iran and a persistently high diesel crack spread, are causing real-world inflation that isn't fully captured in headline data. This is exerting immense pressure on the bond market, which has broken out of a long-standing range to the downside, sending yields sharply higher.
Greer points out that this dynamic is crushing the natural resources sector. A strong U.S. dollar, itself a product of higher rates, is knocking down commodities like gold, uranium, and rare earths, which have seen their recent rallies completely reverse. He notes that institutional money has likely fled these trades entirely. Meanwhile, the equity market is being led by a narrow group of technology stocks, particularly in semiconductors and AI, which seem completely detached from rising rates and fuel costs—a situation he finds unsustainable and reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, highlighting a sentiment top where a random retiree brags about her Nvidia stock.
Looking ahead, Greer is adopting a defensive posture focused on survival. He is "slapping singles" by trading small, being disciplined with stops, and waiting for a clear macro signal. His immediate plan is to look for pullbacks in leading tech sectors for a safer entry. He dismisses the idea that the Federal Reserve is in a pickle, arguing its control over money supply and expectations gives it immense power to eventually engineer a turnaround.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:02:20 - Market Whipsaw and Challenges 00:04:22 - Inflation and Diesel Prices 00:07:00 - Bond Market Tailspin 00:09:10 - Bond Market Focus 00:14:30 - High Rates Market Pressure 00:17:55 - Fed Position and Policy 00:21:05 - Market Resilience and Sentiment 00:24:26 - Icarus Prints Explained 00:29:00 - Energy Crisis and Oil 00:36:11 - Impact on Miners and Firms 00:38:02 - AI Bubble and Passive Flows 00:41:10 - New Gold ETFs YASU 00:44:55 - New Financial Order & Real Assets 00:55:36 - Favorite Lessons & Mentors
Guest:
Tony Greer — Trader, Editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and Co-Founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast' After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.
He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro, LLC. Conference Website X Substack YouTube
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