Forecasting in volatile times: Are tariffs a game changer for growth and inflation?
The 10-Minute TakeShow Notes
Full-blown reciprocal U.S. tariffs are on pause for 90 days, but sizeable 10% tariffs imposed on most countries on April 5 remains in place, and it, along with steep tariffs on imports from China, could have significant implications for the country’s inflation and growth.
The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate is currently at its highest since the 1930s, but, in a twist of fate, Canada has emerged as one of the least impacted countries, thanks to USMCA exemptions.
RBC Economics has updated forecasts for the U.S. and Canada to reflect these developments. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone attempt to answer these questions:
· How will tariffs influence inflation and GDP growth in the U.S. and Canada? · Will either country see a recession in the coming year? · What could future policy from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve look like?
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