The Intelligence Failure Was Just One Piece—And the Rest Is Worse
Daily Updates on Russian Invasion of UkraineShow Notes
I examine Ukraine’s report that it received no advance U.S. warning before the first wave of a Russian barrage involving 16 ballistic missiles against Kyiv and the surrounding region. The attack reportedly damaged more than 10 energy facilities and left at least 550 households without power. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he had no information on that night’s incident, while noting that previous warning failures involved software problems. But when ballistic missiles are involved, even a brief gap can carry grave consequences—especially for a country short of Patriot interceptors.I then connect that episode to the wider policy picture: reported delays of Patriot missiles already funded through a NATO initiative, alleged Starshield and Starlink constraints, calls for Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries, and discussion of sanctions relief for Moscow. I assess Zelensky’s proposed Patriot-for-restraint trade, Russia’s stated ambitions in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk, and congressional threats of oversight. My central question is whether pressure on Kyiv can produce a durable settlement—or instead increase Russia’s leverage while attacks continue.00:00 Kyiv Reports No Advance Ballistic-Missile Warning02:50 Rubio’s Response and Intelligence-Sharing Dispute04:52 From One Strike to the Wider Policy Picture06:43 Zelensky’s Case: Patriots, Interceptors, and Pressure10:15 Starshield Limits and Congressional Oversight12:48 Reported Patriot Delays and Air-Defense Needs15:08 Does Pressuring Kyiv Strengthen Moscow?16:50 Support for Ukrainian Brigades and Closing Thoughts#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #Kyiv #PatriotMissiles #AirDefense #StarlinkFacts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ ***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplainsBuy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdesPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdesYouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukrainehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ *****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ 🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20 🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes 🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE 🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR
More from Daily Updates on Russian Invasion of Ukraine
I examine Volodymyr Zelensky’s accusation that Vladimir Putin rejected Donald Trump’s proposed energy ceasefire, leaving Ukraine’s civilians exposed to further strikes on power infrastructure as winter approaches. Zelensky also rejects the claim that Ukraine is responsible for rising U.S. diesel prices, raising a larger question: does blaming Kyiv instead of Moscow create leverage for peace—or reward coercion?I also track Ukraine’s unanswered questions over SpaceX satellite-communications restrictions, a bipartisan House letter seeking Starlink access against Russian missile launchers, and NATO’s new centralized procurement access for Kyiv. In Europe, Denmark is backing Firepoint drone-defense production, Finland is rebuilding anti-personnel landmine stocks, and Russian drone strikes near Romanian and Bulgarian waters have hit seven ships and killed 24 people. I connect these developments to Russian disinformation efforts, reported online influence operations ahead of the U.S. midterms, and the strategic stakes for American leadership and NATO deterrence.00:00 Zelensky on Trump, Putin, and an Energy Ceasefire01:37 Occupied Oleshky, Aid Drones, and Russian Disinformation03:48 Ukrainian Intelligence and European Defense Production05:47 Black Sea Drone Attacks Near NATO Waters08:00 Kyiv Strikes and Defenses Around Alabuga10:07 Starlink Restrictions and U.S. Leadership13:01 Russian Online Influence Ahead of the Midterms14:54 The Strategic Choice: Pressure Putin or Zelensky?#Ukraine #Russia #Zelenskyy #Trump #NATO #StarlinkFacts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ ***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplainsBuy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdesPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdesYouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukrainehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ *****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ 🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20 🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes 🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE 🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR
I examine the Republican backlash to Donald Trump’s approach to Russia, Ukraine, and sanctions as the U.S. midterm elections approach. Republican Representative Max Miller opposes waiving congressionally enacted Russia sanctions, while Ted Cruz, Don Bacon, Chris Christie, Bill O’Reilly, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, and National Review all feature in the debate. The central strategic question is whether Washington should pressure Moscow to end its war or ease pressure on Russia while constraining Ukraine.As a Reagan Republican, I also assess the domestic political stakes. I look at polling on Vladimir Putin and Russia, campaign advertising that places Trump at the center of congressional races, Trump’s approval among Republicans, historical midterm comparisons, and forecasts for House and Senate control. This is ultimately a leadership test: deterrence and alliance credibility versus accommodation of an authoritarian aggressor.00:00 The Midterm Mood and Trump’s Political Risk03:15 Oil Prices, Iran, and the Russia Argument06:42 Public Opinion on Russia, Canada, and Ukraine08:42 Polling, Campaign Ads, and Congressional Races11:52 Historical Midterm Comparisons and Forecasts14:47 Reagan Republicans, Deterrence, and Ukraine#Trump #Putin #Ukraine #RussiaSanctions #MidtermElections #RepublicanPartyFacts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ ***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplainsBuy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdesPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdesYouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukrainehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ *****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ 🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20 🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes 🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE 🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR
Ukraine reported the highest Russian casualties of the entire war, and they lost ground. There was an attack on Moscow, and more. Today, Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ ***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplainsBuy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdesPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdesYouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukrainehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ *****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ 🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20 🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes 🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE 🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR
Okay, I've gone over this again and again, but now it looks like Musk was the trigger man for the shutdown of Starlink. The Wall Street Journal is just reporting differently than what Reuters reported recently. Here are the facts as we know them now. Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ ***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplainsTurns out - ELON DID IT (According to the Wall Street Journal). Here is the rest of the story.Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdesPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdesYouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukrainehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ *****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ 🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20 🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes 🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE 🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR
Trump says Russia Keeps advancing. Russia’s reported stockpile of up to 700 ballistic missiles, several thousand cruise missiles, and more than 6,000 attack drones—alongside production estimated at 10,000 drones per month. And yet, Ukraine just keeps pressing on. I also assess Russian diesel shipments to Turkey and Brazil, drone incidents in Romania and near France’s Toulon Naval Base, and NATO’s plan for more Black Sea patrol aircraft and drones. The strategic question is whether surveillance and declarations without consequences can deter further Russian escalation.00:00 Zelensky’s Oslo Talks and Pressure on Ukraine01:28 F-16 Maintenance, PAC-3s, and Air Defense03:14 Zelensky’s Rising Support and Kyiv’s Internal Strains04:58 Drone Incidents in Romania and France06:46 NATO’s Black Sea Patrols and Deterrence08:19 Russian Influence Operations and Nuclear Rhetoric10:40 Russia’s Missile Stockpile and North Korean Labor12:20 Rubio, Trump, and U.S. Policy Toward Ukraine15:14 The Strategic Cost of Pressuring Kyiv#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #NATO #Zelensky #Trump #BlackSeaFacts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ ***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplainsBuy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdesPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdesYouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukrainehttps://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/ *****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ 🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20 🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes 🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE 🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR