A Look Back at 2025's Stock Market Predictions | The Informed Investor 25 Video
The Informed InvestorShow Notes
Episode 25: At the end of every calendar year, stock market pundits publish predictions for the coming 12 months. Should you pay attention to these forecasts? A look back at predictions for 2025 may help you decide. Some market pros argued that international stocks would struggle due to tensions around global trade and tariff policies. But that's not what happened. From January through the end of November, non-US stocks were performing far better than US stocks based on index returns. Similarly, many countries pegged as potential victims in a trade war—like Canada and Mexico—were outgaining the US market through the end of November. What about specific predictions for the US market—did they prove prescient in 2025? Not exactly. Ditto for the four years leading up to 2025. Many predictions weren't close, as realized gains mostly ran far ahead of the forecasts. At least one category did see accurate predictions: gold. Soothsayers in late 2024 went all in on a gold rally—and the coveted metal soared past $4,000 through November after starting the year just above $2,600. But similar predictions for a bitcoin boom didn't work out; the widely followed cryptocurrency was hit with big losses late in the year. In Episode 25 of the "The Informed Investor" podcast, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, Wes Crill, PhD, Senior Client Solutions Director, and Jake DeKinder, Head of Client Communications, conduct an investment autopsy on 2025 predictions and offer some insights on why accurate forecasts were hard to come by. LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE: "The Informed Investor" on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCyJr6FFig-h1mA7rVP7Mbk0irFw2wA90 Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/ Wes Crill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-crill-77a49417/ Jake DeKinder on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-dekinder-cfa-4105b98/ Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/
More from The Informed Investor
Episode 61: The allure of index funds, such as broad diversification, low costs, and market-matching returns, may seem undeniable. But recent "reconstitution" in the indexes tracked by such funds tells a different story—one every investor should understand.
Episode 60: Every two years, millions of investors probably ask themselves (and their advisors) whether looming elections demand changes to their investment portfolios. It's an understandable sentiment—and one that demands discussion. But the most important conclusion from these conversations should never change: Since the data doesn't show any strong connection between election results and stock market performance, it's best to vote with your ballot, not your portfolio. No matter how you slice, dice, or take a hatchet to the data, factor in your own political proclivities, or scream about what you think is totally wrong or right about the candidates, market prices have already incorporated all that information (and thousands of other developments, including numerous economic indicators) as investors consider what to do next. This is a well-researched theory of how capital markets work. The implication is that the stock market doesn't really care what you think about this year's midterm elections or the next presidential horse race. Need supporting evidence? Fourteen of 17 presidential terms since 1929, across administrations with both Democratic and Republican chief executives, ended with positive returns for the S&P 500 Index. (S&P data © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global.) Investors shouldn't ignore elections, of course. But their portfolios may benefit from standing pat as politics rile and emotions rock and roll. In Episode 60 of The Informed Investor podcast, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, Wes Crill, Senior Client Solutions Director, and Jake DeKinder, Head of Client Communications, interrogate common myths about the impact of elections on markets and offer sensible answers as investors head to the polls. LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE: "Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life" Order the new book by Dimensional Founder David Booth https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0GPDHGH8K/?maas=maas_adg_2F97289929AB0BA26D806A1F81D55D66_afap_abs&ref_=aa_maas&tag=maas&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER Subscribe to the Stay Calm Investing Newsletter https://www.staycalminvesting.com/newsletter?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor The Informed Investor: Feedback Survey https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/informed-investor-survey?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor "The Informed Investor" on YouTube The Informed Investor - YouTube Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/ Wes Crill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-crill-77a49417/ Jake DeKinder on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-d-4105b98/ Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor For US audiences: Select videos are available as part of an opportunity for CFP® and Investments & Wealth Institute® professionals to earn continuing education (CE) credits https://www.dimensional.com/financial-professionals/ce-credit-experience-d360?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor
Episode 59: What happens when you rethink how financial advice is delivered—and how an industry comes together?
Episode 58: Any financial professional who joined the industry a week after Black Monday—when the stock market suffered its biggest single-day loss—knows something about investment discipline.
Episode 57: How much of your portfolio should really be invested in alternatives? For ultra-high-net-worth investors and families, alternative investments have long been viewed as a path to diversification, exclusive access, and potentially higher returns. But are they always worth the complexity, illiquidity, fees, and taxes that come with them? We take a critical look at the world of alternatives—from hedge funds, private equity, and venture capital to private real estate and other non-public investments. We explore where returns actually come from, looking at the impact of enterprise risk, financial engineering, and manager skill, and examine whether those sources of return truly justify the additional costs and complexity. We also discuss the role of liquidity, diversification, taxation, manager selection, and investment purpose when evaluating alternatives. Are private investments genuinely less volatile, or do appraisal-based valuations simply make them look that way? And as access expands beyond institutions and ultra-wealthy families into vehicles such as 401(k) plans, are investors really gaining access to the same opportunities? Finally, we look at one of the original homes of alternative investing: endowments. If institutions with long time horizons, sophisticated investment teams, and access to top-tier managers have not consistently outperformed comparable public-market portfolios, what should individual investors conclude? In Episode 57 of The Informed Investor, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, sits down with Jeff Coyle, founder and CEO of Libretto. The takeaway: Alternatives aren't inherently good or bad—they need to be deconstructed, evaluated, and compared against the public markets with a clear understanding of where the return comes from and what you're paying to get it. LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE: Subscribe to the Stay Calm Investing Newsletter https://www.staycalminvesting.com/newsletter?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor The Informed Investor: Feedback Survey https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/informed-investor-survey?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor "The Informed Investor" on YouTube The Informed Investor - YouTube Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/ Jeff Coyle on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffcoylelibretto Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor For US audiences: Select videos are available as part of an opportunity for CFP® and Investments & Wealth Institute® professionals to earn continuing education (CE) credits https://www.dimensional.com/financial-professionals/ce-credit-experience-d360?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor