Show Notes
ASB's Chief Economist Nick Tuffley delivers the warning most NZ business owners do not want to hear: rate cuts are over and the Reserve Bank is likely to raise rates as soon as September. He calls this a 9 out of 10 shock, worse than the GFC. If your mortgage is coming up for refix, this is the episode you need before you sign anything.
Episode Partners AcademyEx Get ahead with AI https://discover.academyex.com/mina
Pwrfully Get your story to the people who matter https://www.pwrfully.com
Follow Nick Tuffley ASB Economic Research https://www.asb.co.nz/documents/economic-research.html
Follow Me Mina on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@NotesFromTheExecutivePodcast Mina on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4QgZGJdrnfjZ1sEm6MeGcp?si=c12e08e33f604916 Mina on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/notes-from-the-executive-podcast/id1586953812 Mina on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/minaamso/ Mina on LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/in/minaamso
0:00 – How big is this shock? Comparing crises (Asian crisis, GFC, Covid, war)0:45 – Who is Nick Tuffley? Chief economist introduction1:17 – Why watch this episode? What you’ll learn2:01 – The listener in mind: stressed NZ business owner with a mortgage2:40 – “Less optimistic”: how the 2026 outlook has changed3:25 – What is the current global energy shock?4:38 – Rating past shocks vs this one: why this is a “9 out of 10”6:09 – 20% of global oil and gas offline: what that means in practice8:38 – How NZ households and businesses are already feeling it10:00 – Fuel costs, freight, shipping and export disruption11:14 – Covid vs this crisis: why this time is harder to fix with policy14:20 – Inflation risk and memories of 2022–2415:34 – If the war ended today: how long until fuel prices ease?17:18 – $3.50+ for petrol, $3.90+ for diesel: price impacts explained18:02 – Our deep dependence on oil and why it’s so hard to replace19:10 – Ad break: disruptive technologies, AI, Sora and blockchain21:45 – “We’re fragile”: NZ’s starting point and why RBNZ may hike22:32 – Why raise interest rates? Plain‑English explanation24:23 – Fuel vs interest rates: what’s really driving prices up?25:42 – CPI basket explained: how inflation is actually measured26:50 – Wage–price spiral: why the Reserve Bank is worried29:09 – Forecasting interest rates: why nobody really knows30:00 – Scenario planning for businesses, not date‑picking30:29 – Which sectors are hit hardest: transport, logistics, agri, manufacturing32:40 – Mortgages in uncertain times: generic guidance and trade‑offs36:08 – Fixing vs floating: risk tolerance and peace of mind38:38 – “Feels like a lottery”: framing mortgage decisions as risk management39:54 – Matching loan terms to life plans and rental leases40:52 – How banks test your servicing at higher “stress” rates43:18 – Nick’s forecasting track record and awards45:24 – Growth forecasts: from 2.5–3% down to ~1–1.5%47:29 – Quarterly outlook for 2026 and why data lags so much49:47 – Two scenarios: war improves vs gets worse50:00 – If the shock drags on: oil, gas, fertilizer and farming impacts51:49 – Who goes without? Developing world, Asia and energy scarcity55:00 – Can other countries replace Middle Eastern oil? Limits and lags56:27 – Risks of social unrest and priority fuel use57:59 – How fragile the world feels: a few governments, global consequences59:25 – From post‑WWII stability to geopolitical instability1:00:00 – Political shocks vs economic/health shocks: a new risk era1:01:08 – Globalization, free trade and why NZ can’t easily “go it alone”1:02:36 – Final thoughts: scenario planning and focusing on what you can control1:04:24 – Don’t get lost in the headlines: understand your real business risks1:05:10 – Where to find Nick’s work and closing thanks
More from Notes From The Executive
Nicola Taylor is a lawyer by background and co-founder of Tax Traders and Taxi. Tax Traders was named Best Place to Work in Aotearoa for 2024 and is a certified B Corp. For most owners, the timing of tax matters more than the amount. We put that to work on the hardest cash flow date of the year, 15 January.Logitech👉 https://www.logitech.comPwrfullyLearn How to Tell Your Story On Podcast To Grow Your Business👉 https://pwrfully.com/podcast-guest-workshopWhat I Asked Nicola👉 What are NZ business owners thinking right before the election?👉 Should we be taxing more or less right now?👉 What bothers you most about the NZ tax system?👉 What is tax pooling, for someone who has never heard of it?👉 Why have we not heard about this?👉 Your companies have no traditional managers. How does that work?Leave Me A ReviewOn Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4QgZGJdrnfjZ1sEm6MeGcpOn Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/notes-from-the-executive-podcast/id1584949377Follow Nicolahttps://home.taxtraders.co.nzTimestamps00:00 Intro01:00 What NZ business owners are thinking before the election05:08 The stories that kept Tax Traders going for 14 years07:50 Why Tax Traders isn't waiting for the election result08:45 Should NZ be taxing more or less?12:43 The thing that bothers Nicola most about NZ tax15:50 What is tax pooling? Explained simply17:29 Underpaying or overpaying provisional tax19:43 How to choose when you pay your tax20:37 Why haven't business owners heard of this?22:54 Getting overpaid tax back and funding at 5.4%26:27 Timing beats the amount of tax31:00 Will a GST threshold of $80,000 help?32:52 The productivity conversation, brought to you by Logitech37:36 The in-house nanny and school holiday programme42:14 When human sense becomes commercial sense43:47 Can a people-first business be profitable?45:46 Final thoughts
James Hurman was named the world's best strategic planner. He is the founder and chair of Previously Unavailable, the Auckland venture company behind Tracksuit and AF Drinks, and the author of Future Demand. His argument: advertising doesn't cause sales, it decides which brand wins them. · We put that to work at NZ scale: a business under $1 million, a $20k marketing budget split the way his data says, how James sizes risk across his ventures, and the four habits of lucky people from his children's book The Boy and the Lemon. · AcademyEx: www.academyex.com · Logitech: www.logitech.com · Pwrfully: Learn How to Tell Your Story On Podcast To Grow Your Business: pwrfully.com/podcast-guest-workshop · What I asked James: What framework for advertising do you swear by? Does brand building work for a business under $1 million? How should a small business split a $20k marketing budget? How do you assess risk across so many ventures? Why are some people luckier than others? · Follow James: LinkedIn · Leave me a review: Spotify | Apple Podcasts
Wonky Box, a NZ food rescue business spent nothing on marketing in its first year. It still reached more than 1,000 customers before paying for a single ad. Angus Simms explains how: a new grower's story every week, posted in local Facebook groups with no prices and no links. Now the business is squeezed at both ends by freight levies, and Angus says fuel costs are no longer temporary. We also cover the proposed merger between two of New Zealand's three big produce wholesalers. AcademyEx Don't get left behind with AI. Join the Disruptive Technologies Course and get $50 off with code PARTNERS 👉 academyex.com/partners-courses Pwrfully Learn How to Tell Your Story On Podcast To Grow Your Business 👉 pwrfully.com/podcast-guest-workshop Angus Simms co-founded Wonky Box with his partner Katie after a hailstorm in the Tasman marked a season of pears and apples. Before that he worked in finance in London. Six years on, Wonky Box says it has 17,000 active subscribers, warehouses in Auckland and Christchurch, and more than 100 growers. It now sells meat, flowers and upcycled pantry goods alongside produce. What I Asked Angus 👉 How did you get your first 1,000 customers without ads? 👉 How do you know a business idea will actually make money? 👉 How have you made it work with rising fuel costs? 👉 Should one produce wholesaler buy the other? 👉 What was your most costly mistake? Follow Me Mina on YouTube youtube.com/@NotesFromTheExecutivePodcast Mina on Spotify open.spotify.com/show/4QgZGJdrnfjZ1sEm6MeGcp Mina on Apple Podcasts podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/notes-from-the-executive-podcast/id1584949377 Mina on Instagram instagram.com/minaamso Mina on LinkedIn linkedin.com/in/minaamso Follow Angus Wonky Box wonkybox.nz Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:10 Why isn't a subscription box for everyone? 06:21 How is a produce box different from a meal kit? 08:36 Why is NZ meat being sent overseas? 10:03 How do I spot a business idea in someone else's problem? 13:27 How much NZ food never gets eaten? 17:22 How do I know a business idea will make money? 21:10 How do I test a business idea with no budget? 22:33 Is a business incubator worth it? 25:25 Why set up a board of directors early? 29:24 How do I free up 40% of my week? 33:59 What do I do when outsourcing fails the first time? 36:07 How do I expand a business to a new region? 39:49 How big can a NZ subscription business get? 43:12 How do I get my first 1,000 customers without ads? 47:28 How does PR grow a small business? 50:05 Why does storytelling sell when customers can't choose? 55:10 What marketing actually moves the needle now? 59:10 What does the produce wholesaler merger mean for NZ? 1:03:22 Why is fresh produce consumption dropping in NZ? 1:05:16 How do I price a fixed box when costs change weekly? 1:09:28 How do rising freight costs hit a delivery business? 1:12:08 How do I plan for fuel costs that aren't temporary? 1:15:22 Why do early hires stop fitting the role? 1:18:00 What does one packing mistake cost? 1:19:37 Is now a good time to start a business in NZ? 1:21:16 Where to find Wonky Box
AcademyEx Don't get left behind with AI. Join the Disruptive Technologies Course starting October 6th and get $50 off with code PARTNERS 👉 academyex.com/partners-courses Logitech Win Logitech Productivity Giveaway worth $1,500 To enter: 👉 bit.ly/NFTEGiveaway Pwrfully Learn How to Tell Your Story On Podcast To Grow Your Business 👉 pwrfully.com/podcast-guest-workshop Want to be a podcast guest? Answer 7 questions and get 3 NZ and Australian shows your buyers listen to, with a pitch angle for each. Free: 👉 pwrfully.com/podcastfinder For our podcast's second birthday I left the studio. I spent two days at the Franchise and Small Business Expo in Auckland and asked nine business owners one question. How are you making it work right now? One accountant says customers are going under. Another says the biggest shock is the first-year tax bill. A founder built an AI board of directors after her team was headhunted. A home staging business now does up to 60 houses a month. Featuring Cassandra Cadorin (founder, CanTicket), Catherine Newton (business coach), Craig (director, Drone Boss), Dave Hayward (founder, Europa Creative Partners), Alick (head of growth, Thankyou Payroll), Asheel (accountant, PKF), Jaki (co-founder, Foxx and Filly Home Staging), Tim Waite (leadership coach) and Michelle (accountant, Money Savvy Move). What I Asked 👉 Can a non-tech business owner build AI agents? 👉 What is the most common cause of bad cash flow? 👉 Is your first year in business tax free? 👉 Why is year two the hardest year in business? 👉 Can you build a successful life waking up at 8am? Timestamps 00:00 Intro 02:32 What are the 7 levels of AI for business? 04:49 How does an AI board of directors run a business? 11:09 Can a non-tech business owner build AI agents? 17:29 How do I stop trading hours for dollars? 21:59 Why are NZ business owners afraid to be seen? 28:47 What is the difference between features and benefits? 33:54 How do I protect the first four hours of my day? 41:25 What if I could only sell one offer for 12 months? 44:39 Why start a drone business in NZ right now? 45:54 Why do some businesses grow and others stall? 48:22 How much can a drone contractor make? 50:04 Why is year two the hardest year in business? 51:24 What would you do differently starting a business again? 55:11 What is hope marketing? 57:10 What is the difference between brand building and sales activation? 1:00:06 Why does selling on price become a race to the bottom? 1:03:36 How do I get more people to open my newsletter? 1:11:56 How do I build an AI business brain in Claude? 1:12:45 How do I protect deep work time? 1:17:36 How can a payroll company run as a social enterprise? 1:21:00 What is steward ownership? 1:28:04 What causes most cash flow problems? 1:29:30 How do I make business decisions without emotion? 1:33:25 Can AI keep a small business alive? 1:36:01 How do I start a home staging business? 1:40:24 How do I build loyalty with referral partners? 1:42:23 When should I franchise my business? 1:46:43 How much does home staging cost in NZ? 1:52:42 Why do business owners avoid hard conversations? 1:56:19 Do successful people have to wake up at 5am? 2:04:15 Is your first year in business tax free? 2:04:59 How much should I set aside for tax? 2:06:58 When should I shut down a business that is losing money? 2:10:01 How do I stop big goals overwhelming me? Follow Me Mina on YouTube youtube.com/@NotesFromTheExecutivePodcast Mina on Spotify open.spotify.com/show/4QgZGJdrnfjZ1sEm6MeGcp Mina on Apple Podcasts podcasts.apple.com/nz/podcast/notes-from-the-executive-podcast/id1584949377 Mina on Instagram instagram.com/minaamso Mina on LinkedIn linkedin.com/in/minaamso
What happens to a country that stops making things? · AcademyEx Don't get left behind with AI. Join the Disruptive Technologies Course starting October 6th and get $50 off with code PARTNERS 👉 https://academyex.com/partners-courses · Logitech Win Logitech Productivity Giveaway worth $1,500 To enter: 👉 https://bit.ly/NFTEGiveaway ·