2026 Midterm Senate Forecast | Polls vs. Models with Silver Bulletin’s Eli McKown-Dawson

Terms of Service with Future Caucus A Vermont Democrat and a South Carolina Republican, both young parents in legislative leadership, on what it takes to raise small kids while serving in the statehouse. Terms of Service is a limited series from Future Caucus and TP&R, hosted by Future Caucus CEO Layla Zaidane. People run for state legislature to serve their communities, then find the fine print. This episode brings together Rep. Mary-Katherine Stone (D-VT) and Rep. Brandon Newton (R-SC), assistant majority leaders in their chambers, on bringing a baby to the House floor, scheduling around daycare pickup, and why legislatures need people living through the issues they vote on. This series is a partnership between SCAN Media and Future Caucus. Executive Producers: Future Caucus and Layla Zaidane.

Twenty years in the pulpit. Ten years of disillusionment. He says he’s better for it. Pat Kahnke cast his first vote for Ronald Reagan, spoke on behalf of the pro-life movement, and picked his church because he walked in on Pro-Life Sunday. Then 2016 sent him back to rethink all of it. In this Substack Live conversation, Corey and Pat talk about why the “binary choice” argument falls apart in the primaries, what “if love is obedience” says about authoritarian faith, the Somali community and the ICE occupation in Minnesota, and Pete Hegseth’s push to livestream an execution.

Last time we promised unreasonably irresponsible midterm predictions and got sidetracked. This time we actually make the calls. Chip is back at Doc’s Inn for another round of “To the Republic... To the Pub.” First comes a fight over whether the polls lean left, what Nate Silver actually said in 2016, and whether 2024 Trump voters are staying put. Then the House, and the Senate map race by race, from Georgia to a wild card in Nebraska. Also featured: a Kalshi bet, a Montblanc pen, and a shot riding on the outcome.

He almost never votes for Democrats. This year, he’s making an exception. Matt K. Lewis has spent his career on the right. He’s won a Buckley Award, he was named CPAC Blogger of the Year, and he once wanted to grow up to be Alex P. Keaton. In this Substack Live conversation, Corey and Matt dig into why he’s voting blue in 2026, how Trump broke up his own coalition, the Senate races worth watching four weeks out, and what both parties could learn from a wave, if one comes.

For ten years, Pete Wehner's email subject line for every new outrage was "No bottom means no bottom." Now he and Jon Rauch think they may have found one. Jonathan Rauch and Peter Wehner join Corey to talk about their New York Times essay, "Trump Has Finally Lost the Plot." They lay out where Trump succeeded, where his effort to remake American society failed, and why Minneapolis, the courts, and his falling approval numbers made the difference. Jon stayed for some bonus time to talk about when to keep a hard conversation going and when to walk away. Calls to Action ✅ Leave a rating and review: lovethepodcast.com/politicsandreligion ✅ Subscribe on Substack: coreysnathan.substack.com ✅ Watch and subscribe on YouTube: youtube.com/@politicsandreligion Key takeaways Rauch and Wehner put Trump's agenda into three buckets: lowering the country's norms, running the government as a family business (Max Weber's "patrimonialism"), and using federal power to rewire civil society. He mostly succeeded at the first two and failed at the third. They credit the people of Minneapolis, the lower courts, and approval ratings in the 30s with forcing the administration to retreat. Drawing on a sermon by Rabbi Michael Holtzman, Rauch says walking away from someone is sometimes fine. Walking away with contempt is the problem.