Jan Czarnocki: Why AI agents aren't beating human traders any time soon

🎙️NEXTPredict Podcast #5 with Rebecca Kossnick, Co-founder & CEO at Hypernatural Before Kalshi. Before Polymarket. Before prediction markets were on the front page of every newspaper, Meta built one. In 2020, a small team inside Facebook launched a product called Forecast. No real money, just points and public reputation. Every forecast was made public. And it was, by any measure, remarkably accurate. Rebecca Kossnick joins Pierre on the NEXTPredict Podcast to tell the full inside story and to explain why Meta is now building a second one, called Arena. ⏰ Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:04 - Welcoming Rebecca Kossnick 01:30 - How Forecast got started inside Facebook's team 03:30 - Launching in April 2020 and the first wave of users 07:29 - The status problem Forecast was solving 10:52 - The challenges: explaining probabilities to users in 2019 15:47 - The grand vision 18:30 - Why Forecast didn't survive 23:48 - Hypernatural: the AI video company Rebecca and Taylor built next 25:43 - Where prediction markets and AI video collide 27:36 - Opportunity or problem? 30:18 - Where does Rebecca see Hypernatural in three years? NYC Summit - NEXTPredict October 22 - 23, 2026 at Convene 30 Hudson Yards. 🎟 Get your tickets here: https://nextpredict.io/summits/the-worlds-prediction-markets-summit/ 🔔 SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCAST Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/409DefE06IKPhZzhDIDpH3?si=06a0ceb6be594746 Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/es/podcast/next-io-podcast/id1515442333?l=en-GB CONNECT WITH NEXTPredict ✩ Website: https://nextpredict.io/

🎙️ NEXT.io Podcast #268 with Michael Pedersen, CEO of Swivel Gaming

🎙️NEXTPredict Podcast #4 with Chuck Todd on the 2026 Midterms, Prediction Market Blind Spots & the Future of Political Forecasting Chuck Todd spent three decades at NBC News as political director and moderator of Meet the Press. He now runs The Chuck ToddCast independently. He is also the official ambassador for NEXTPredict New York, taking place October 22-23. In this episode, Pierre sits down with Chuck to do something very few people are qualified to do: speak to both the political reality and the prediction market picture at the same time and point out exactly where the two come apart.

🎙️NEXTPredict Podcast #3 with JB Mackenzie, General Manager & VP Futures & International at Robinhood. Two years ago, Robinhood launched one prediction market on one election night. Today it's their second biggest revenue line — bigger than crypto, bigger than equities. Over 2 million customers have traded a prediction market on Robinhood, and the industry has gone from 3 CFTC-regulated exchanges to over 22 in the same period. JB Mackenzie, VP and General Manager of Futures and Prediction Markets at Robinhood, joins Pierre on the NextPredict Podcast to go under the hood on how this happened — and where it goes next. ⏰ Timestamps: 00:00 - Intro 00:34 - JB welcome 01:47 - The Sunday in London that started it all 03:09 - When did this stop being a feature and start being a business? 04:49 - Why Robinhood chose not to vertically integrate 09:23 - From 3 exchanges to 22 11:19 - The crypto.com and OG partnership explained 16:22 - The customer is the secret sauce. 18:21 - It feels like a Sprint but it's a Marathon 19:52 - Prediction markets: now Robinhood's second biggest revenue line 22:26 - "Prediction markets wasn't the plan" 24:23 - Sports is the headline. 27:17 - Will prediction markets replace the insurance industry? 30:29 - The #1 thing holding prediction markets back 33:31 - The midterms: Robinhood's election hub explained 35:04 - Where does this space look in 2029? 36:02 - Prediction markets as financial education

🎙️NEXTPredict Podcast #1 with Robin Hanson, Assoc. Professor, Economics at George Mason UniversityRobin Hanson has been arguing we should "bet on what's true" since the late 1980s — decades before Kalshi and Polymarket turned prediction markets into a billion-dollar industry. A physicist-turned-economist who helped invent the market-making math running under today's biggest betting platforms, Hanson joins the show to explain why prediction markets are having their moment now, what's next for the space, and why he thinks the real prize isn't sports betting. It's "decision markets" that could change how governments, companies, and the Fed make decisions?⏰ Timestamps:00:00 - Intro: who is Robin Hanson01:40 - What is a prediction market?04:06 - Why now: the regulatory shift behind the boom06:32 - Decision markets: paying for better information13:50 - Governments, the Fed, and antitrust by market17:40 - Diverse perspectives and trader bias21:50 - Insider trading and the "Rounders" problem26:54 - Gambling addiction and who should regulate prediction markets30:54 - Wisdom of crowds vs. first principles: the Nokia/iPhone test34:55 - Futarchy: replacing shareholder votes with markets35:43 - Where is this space heading in three years?38:35 - Final thoughts: keeping companies honest40:11 - Sign-off🔔 SUBSCRIBE TO THE PODCASTYoutube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFqA5f5TsdM0&si=nrKerx5GXu4mDYI4Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...CONNECT WITH NEXTPredict✩ Website: https://nextpredict.io/