
Ep. 009 - Using Open Source Data To Drive Investment Decisions (ChipBook) | Chaim Eisenberg, Simi Sherman, Jordan Nanos
SemiAnalysis WeeklyShow Notes
This week the team from ChipBook (formerly Chips & Wafers) joins. Jordan Nanos talks with Chaim Eisenberg and Simi Sherman as they explore how they build the ChipBook with open source data, and how that drives investment decisions. This episode dives deep into the ChipBook itself, revealing how granular, historical data collection provides insights into supply chain dynamics, memory markets, wafer fabrication equipment trends and more. The guests also share compelling examples of how their data-driven approach has generated some viral social media recently.for more: SemiAnalysis.com/chipbook00:00 The Chipbook: Understanding Open Source Data07:56 Granularity in Data: The Key to Investment Insights09:11 Understanding the Semiconductor Supply Chain10:52 Memory Market Insights and Trends14:23 Tracking WFE and Its Impact on Production15:20 The Importance of Early Signals in Investment16:51 Geopolitical Implications on Semiconductor Supply20:24 The Impact of Tariffs and Regulations22:48 Granular Tracking for Investment Decisions27:07 Data-Driven Insights and Investment Strategies29:13 The Structure of the Chipbook33:02 Collaboration and Integration at Semi Analysis37:02 Geopolitical Analysis and Its Impact on TSMC43:48 Helium Supply Chain and Its Importance
More from SemiAnalysis Weekly
Every hybrid bonder on the market today brings the die to the wafer. ASML's patents bring the wafer to the die.Sherry Zhang and Howie join Jordan Nanos (@jordananos) to dig into the patents behind ASML's die-to-wafer hybrid bonder, why a track-based design could beat Besi on alignment and particle control, and why HBM won't adopt die-to-wafer hybrid bonding before 2029. The team also looks at how China is using hybrid bonding to keep scaling past its lithography limits, and what larger photomasks mean for High-NA EUV.Chapters:0:00 The Patent Tip-Off1:53 Hybrid Bonding 1014:06 Die-to-Wafer vs Wafer-to-Wafer5:43 Back End vs Front End8:05 Why HBM Waits Until 202913:45 Everything Comes to the Die18:26 Alignment and Cleanliness22:48 Bonding Instead of Shrinking25:49 China's Toolmakers Step Up28:25 Bigger Masks for High-NA33:29 Two Tool Stacks?Read the full article: ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/asml-is-building-a-hybrid-bonding
Brad Gerstner put our 43 gigawatt forecast for 2027 on All-In, then again in his BG2 sit-down with Jensen, and called it too aggressive. The consensus counter sits near 25 GW, built on moratorium headlines and grid connection fears. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Jeremie Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) and Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower), who have been tracking the same capacity curve since March 2024, and it has barely moved across every model revision. So they aren't cutting it. They're raising it.
GLM 5.3 only attends to the tokens that matter. It still has to keep every one of them.
H100 rental prices went up, on a GPU that should be sliding down its depreciation curve. That curve is what lenders underwrite. Daniel Nishball (@dnishball) kicks off our new Compute Capital Markets group by following the money through Nvidia's $497B backstops, ClusterMAX as a credit signal, and whether each token is profitable. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) brings the rental data. AI debt is about to pass auto loans.
Pay Anthropic $200 a month and you can pull $12,000 of Opus 5.5 tokens at API pricing. Max Kan (@maxkan) and Andrew Megalaa bought every plan, OpenAI, Meta, xAI, MiniMax, Moonshot, Z.ai, Cursor, and measured every token type to find the ceiling. The catch isn't subsidy. Anthropic still books 50 to 60% gross margins on these plans, which means the API itself is the price gouge.