SI403: Trend Following in an Era of Geopolitical Risk ft. Marat Molyboga & Katy Kaminski

Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----

Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----

How reliable is 60/40 when stocks and bonds fall together? Andrew Beer joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to question the return forecasts and diversification assumptions behind traditional asset allocation. They explore how a systematic, non-emotional approach to tactical investing can help portfolios adapt as markets change. The conversation also sets out how to grow the CTA/managed futures pie by explaining the strategy’s value in language investors understand. They discuss why diversification across managers and realistic expectations for uneven returns matter for building investor confidence and encouraging lasting allocations. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----

In today’s episode we talk with London Business School professor Alex Edmans. He has spoken at Davos, testified in the UK House of Commons and reached millions through his TED Talks. He joins the show to discuss his new book, THE MADNESS OF MARKETS, WHY SMART INVESTORS MAKE CRAZY DECISIONS AND HOW TO EXPLOIT THEM. Alex explains why “mood matters” for markets and the surprising relationship of football results and music playlists to market movements. We discuss why individual investors sometimes have an advantage over professionals in taking advantage of psychological biases and go through practical ways this can be implemented. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE -----