DHUnplugged #819: Counterfactualzzzz

Maybe people are just unhappy – says Goldman.

Counterfactualzzzz – that is why bonds are still up.

Are we getting $5,000?

Bitcoin is running again.

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Warm-Up

- Greenland (Renamed Red White and Blue Land?)

- Consumers and People are JUST UNHAPPY

- No more press coverage? Maybe people are unhappy (see above) because of all of the shenanigans going on.

---- Maybe we will all be happier without all of the White House coverage

Markets

- New Highs - NASDAQ 100 moving up with risk assets. (Breath poor though)

--- Close enough to end of month, quarter to be window dressing

---- Buy Yom Kippur!!!

- 10YR Treasury at 5% again - wait until you hear Bessent's victory speech

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MARKET MOVE

- On the heels of SoftBank Group Corp. seeking the equivalent of more than $11 billion in a junk bond deal to fund investments in ChatGPT creator OpenAI.

- The company is looking to issue $10 billion of dollar securities and €1 billion of euro debt to fund a follow-on investment in OpenAI expected to close next month.

- SoftBank and its lead banks are sounding out investors on potential pricing for the proposed junk bond offering, with yields that would be records for SoftBank in those specific currencies and tenors if priced at those levels.

- Could it be that simple why NAZ 100 is at new highs?

BESSENT'S "COUNTERFACTUAL" DEFENSE

- This is darling...

- Rep. Jim Himes questioned Bessent on September 15 at a House Financial Services Committee hearing.

- Himes: "The 10-year went up by 20 basis points. How can you say it was successful?"

- Bessent: "Well, there is a counterfactual of what would it have done."

- Bessent added: "We then proceeded to have the two most successful Treasury auctions that we've had in 20 years."

- Goes into the Alternative Facts and Fake News Category.

BESSENT'S MYSTERY BANK

- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a large unnamed bank would be sanctioned over Iran.

- The administration has targeted Iranian oil, shipping, finance and weapons networks.

- "Operation Economic Outcast" had already targeted nearly 60 entities, people and vessels.

- Treasury later sanctioned Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran-related sanctions evasion.

GOLDMAN: MAYBE CONSUMERS ARE JUST UNHAPPY

- Michigan consumer sentiment fell nearly 8% from August and 13% year over year.

- Goldman says weak sentiment may increasingly reflect broader unhappiness, not just economic conditions.

- "Very happy" Americans fell to 23% in 2024 from 31% in 2016.

- Inflation still weighs on confidence, but distrust and pessimism may also be distorting surveys.

- Goldman says sentiment may be becoming less useful for predicting actual activity.

GREENLAND DEAL

- Trump announced a deal expanding the U.S. security role in Greenland while it remains Danish territory.

---So it seems we are not going to "take it"

- The agreement aims to settle the dispute over greater U.S. strategic control.

- Rubio said the U.S. has greater financial and military capacity to defend Greenland.

- Arctic security, Russia, China and critical minerals remain the core issues.

- See Greenland Energy (GLND), Greenland Mines (GRML) and Critical Metals (CRML)

SMART GLASSES MEET THE REGULATORS

- Paris prosecutors opened an investigation into alleged secret filming using camera-equipped smart glasses.

- Meta-EssilorLuxottica glasses hold roughly 76% of the global market.

- About 7 million units were sold last year.

- French regulators are getting workplace complaints and questions over whether the devices can be banned.

- Australia and some UK cinemas are also moving toward restrictions.

EUROPE LOSES SAUDI BARRELS

- Saudi Aramco told European cus