Show Notes
Tony Greer, trader, editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and co-founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast', joined Tom Bodrovics to share a trader’s perspective on navigating today’s chaotic markets. Greer emphasized a core philosophy: “Don’t worry about being right, worry about getting it right,” prioritizing P&L over ego and reacting flexibly to new information. He views the brewing energy crisis from the Strait of Hormuz closure as a significant, underappreciated risk, markets may only wake up when tangible shortages hit personal convenience, not through forward-looking pricing. While oil charts remain constructive and he expects high prices for longer, political distractions and Trump’s headlines create confusion, though many are noise to be canceled.
Greer sees a potential replay of 2022 with headline inflation is re-emerging, as seen in recent CPI and PPI prints, which could pressure tech and growth stocks while benefiting hard assets and value. He is positioned long energy, oil services, gold, and miners, noting that gold miners’ sell-off defies their record margins and cheap valuations, making them compelling buys even if they shake out weak hands first. Technology’s AI bubble appears extended, and while he’d short a parabolic blow-off top, he remains nimble, as illustrated by his prepared exit from homebuilders when rates rose. The dollar and yields serve as guides, not trades unto themselves.
Beyond markets, Greer reflected on his inaugural TG Macro conference, finding the deep human need for personal connection its greatest lesson. The event’s sentiment marker—broad consensus to own gold and miners—later proved a contrarian signal, a reminder of crowd psychology. He plans a second conference in Nashville for February 18–19, 2027, with a rotating mix of speakers. Greer stressed the restorative power of analog activities—cooking, guitar, family—and urged listeners to unplug, shake hands, and foster real connection, a balance essential in the digital age.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:12 - Trading Mindset and Flexibility 00:03:28 - Global Energy Crisis Concerns 00:06:40 - Trump Policies and Markets 00:10:10 - Oil Charts and Planning 00:14:20 - Gold Miners Outlook 00:18:24 - Energy Sector Positioning 00:27:30 - Trading & Positioning Shorts 00:30:15 - CPI, Fed, Dollar and Rates 00:35:00 - Morning Market Analysis Routine 00:38:20 - Conference Reflections 00:42:30 - AI & Wrap Up
Guest:
Tony Greer — Trader, Editor of 'The Morning Navigator', and Co-Founder of 'The Macrodirt Podcast' After graduating from Cornell University in 1990 Tony followed in his father’s footsteps to a Wall Street trading operation. He quickly learned his career path would be vastly different. He says, "I would not be sitting in the same seat on the same trading desk managing the same risk for the same firm for over 30 years."
We have clearly entered a new era in financial markets.
He began in the treasury department of Sumitomo Bank on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center downtown Manhattan. Tony was an FX trading assistant while the Quantum Fund was breaking the Bank of England in 1992.
In 1993 he joined Union Bank of Switzerland as an FX and commodities trader, spending half a year as a Vice President in their Zurich treasury department. Then returned to New York City early in 1995 to join J. Aron & Company, the privately held commodity trading arm of Goldman Sachs.
He managed risk for the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index, in precious and base metals trading, and futures and options trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
He started his first venture in 2000 – Machine Trading which happened right before the tech bubble burst. That decision was his first excruciating life lesson in market timing. It turned out to be an extremely valuable learning experience.
He believes there is a massive opportunity with both the unprecedented situation in global markets and in the way financial news is consumed. In 2016, he started TG Macro,
More from The Competent Investor
I sat down with Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland and author of Gold Matters, for a conversation that ranged from French riots to the COMEX silver squeeze. What struck me most was his framing of today's gold setup as fundamentally stronger than the 1970s bull market.
I've had Rory Johnston on before, but this conversation felt different. The oil market Rory describes isn't just tight—it's structurally broken in ways we've never seen.
Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, argues that the US economy is trapped in a self-perpetuating doom loop driven by massive deficits and rising interest rates, which he believes will inevitably lead to a sovereign debt crisis or hyperinflation. He explains that as the Federal Reserve raises rates to combat persistent inflation, the government's interest expense balloons—potentially consuming half or all of tax revenue within years—forcing even larger deficits that fuel more inflation.
AJ Signal, a former military strategist and current geopolitical risk advisor, outlines a framework for predicting conflict by monitoring five logistical signals that nations cannot easily fake: medical mobility, energy, finance, and munitions. He explains how, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the movement of blood banks to the front line served as an undeniable indicator of imminent war, because the cold-chain logistics for blood are too complex to be a bluff. Applying this lens today, he observes the U.S. military moving blood supplies into both Europe and the Asia-Pacific, which, combined with other indicators, suggests preparations for a potential ground operation against Iran.
Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, joins Tom Bodrovics to discuss his increasingly cautious market outlook. Pento’s model currently sits in sectors three and four, indicating stasis or slight reflation, but he anticipates a shift to sectors one and two by 2027. He has neutralized his portfolio for the first time since December 2021, reflecting his be Pento argues that the Federal Reserve is raising short-term rates while long-term rates are also rising, creating pressure on a "triumvirate of bubbles"—credit, real estate, and equities. He attributes this to inflation remaining above target for over five years, foreign creditors abandoning US Treasuries in favor of gold, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The US savings rate is near historic lows, limiting demand for government debt while deficits remain massive. He warns that AI-related debt issuance, potentially a trillion dollars this year, is fueling inflation and competing with Treasuries for scarce savings. He dismisses the idea that renewed quantitative easing could solve the problem, calling such measures palliative and likely to trigger a stagflationary environment.