
Show Notes
Global oil prices remain high as the Middle East conflict persists, raising questions about a potential comeback of the broad-based inflation Canada experienced during and after the pandemic. But, this shock is fundamentally different from the past. Unlike 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war compounded systemic supply chain disruptions from pandemic lockdowns, today's commodity shock is narrowly concentrated in oil, and unfolding at a time when global supply chains are more resilient. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss: How the scope and scale of the commodity price shock differs from the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. What localized and contained supply chain disruptions this year could mean for global inflation. Why Canadian consumers could be less tolerant of rising prices than they were in 2022.
More from The 10-Minute Take
Affording a home in Canada remains challenging for most, but has improved slightly over the past years as prices cooled, economic headwinds mounted, and interest rates dropped. That brief reprieve, however, is about to run its course. As bond yields rise on expectations that the Bank of Canada will hike rates, that will push homeownership further out of reach. Not all markets can expect the same—affordability trends, as in the past, will vary significantly across provinces, while also bringing important implications for the rental market. In this episode of The 10-Minute Take, Claire Fan invites back economist Rachel Battaglia to discuss what's driving housing affordability, and what lies ahead. Watch or listen to our newest episode here or wherever you get your podcasts.
Government bond yields are surging around the world. France's 10-year yield hit levels not seen since 2002, and five-year government bond yields are up 20 basis points in Canada, and 50 in the U.S. over the past month—driven by shifting interest rate expectations and growing fiscal concerns. The U.S. deficit is ballooning, though strong growth offers some cushion. Canada's softer economy and stable debt outlook are carving out an entirely different path. In this episode of The 10-Minute Take, Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan break deep dive into the global bond sell-off, and how rising yields are already reshaping borrowing costs before central banks even act.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023—and markets are wondering if the Bank of Canada will follow. The 25-basis-point hike was widely expected after strong U.S. growth and persistent inflation, and it's unlikely to be a one-and-done. Canada's story is different. Inflation excluding energy sits near the 2% target, and a weak economy is still constraining price pressures. In this episode of The 10-Minute Take, Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone look at diverging central bank paths in Canada and the United States, and what could derail forecasts.
Business investment in Canada rebounded in Q2 after stagnating for more than a year as AI infrastructure related spending ramped up, and weak oil and gas spending recovered. An unprecedented AI buildout continues to power private investment in the U.S., though rising bond yields are pushing up borrowing costs. In this episode of The 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss investment trends reshaping Canada and the U.S., and what to expect heading into 2027.
U.S.-Canada trade talks have broken down followed by new tariffs from each side. At the same time, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2007—driven by persistent inflation concerns, and a national debt crossing US$40 trillion. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss: What the latest tariffs and the counter measures mean for the broader Canadian economy. Why 30-year Treasury yields are at two-decade highs, and what its buyback program can and can’t fix. How inflation, fiscal deficits, and rising interest costs are creating a challenging bind for the U.S.