
Show Notes
Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained?
This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story.
We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two
01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%
02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up
05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case
09:45 Reading The Oil Curve
12:38 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
13:50 Brent–WTI Gap Hits Wartime Highs
16:33 Diesel, Cracks & Maxed-Out Refineries
20:30 The Only Way Out Is Through
23:13 AI Capex Doubts Meet Tighter Conditions
29:18 Ads (Fidelity, DAS London)
30:36 Midterms, Iran & No Plan
36:07 No SPR Left To Cap Prices
39:56 Do Shipping Costs Cap Oil?
44:19 Is Crypto Bottoming?
54:06 The Midterms Risk For Crypto
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto. Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of significant loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services,LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
RESOURCES
› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tnu1D0x02EGLR6qtWjttOj6iDTp-jOLw/view?usp=sharing
› Learn more about Blockworks Agentic Detection:
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-agentic-detection-asset-monitoring-built-for-the-ai-era
› Start building with the Blockworks Unified API
https://blockworks.com/insights/introducing-the-blockworks-unified-api
EVENTS
› Join us at Digital Asset Summit London Nov 10-11
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
More from Forward Guidance
Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work?
Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown?
Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades?
Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy?
The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher.