Show Notes
Look, if you’re still scrolling Twitter for shitty takes on why the Arctic is "strategic," do yourself a favor and put down your phone (after you hit play on this episode). It's a choke point for ICBMs and the GIUK gap, not a brand new new real estate discovery. Tada :) The real story isn't about rare earths or buying ice - it’s about the raw power disparity between a superpower and a NATO ally that’s historically had to swallow American sovereignty on its own soil. Meanwhile, in Tehran, the "analytical trap" is to dismiss the protests as just another 2009. But with oil sub-$50, no off-ramps, and a regime showing actual cracks, the question isn’t if things change - it’s whether the IRGC is ready to trade an 87-year-old Supreme Leader for a seat at the table. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (00:57) - Iran's Economic Crisis and Protests (02:49) - US-Iran Relations and Potential Outcomes (11:57) - Historical Analogies and Regime Change (17:21) - Greenland's Strategic Importance (24:37) - US-Denmark Relations and Sovereignty Issues (34:49) - Denmark's Historical Significance and WWII Heroics (35:36) - The Stupidity of Invading Greenland (35:54) - Republican Senators' Opposition (37:44) - Senator Kennedy's Southern Charm (40:34) - Trump's 19th Century Worldview (41:31) - The Importance of NATO and Denmark's Role (41:58) - Greenland's Resources and American Interests (42:37) - Europe's Response to Trump's Greenland Obsession (49:37) - Geopolitical Realities and American Ignorance (01:01:34) - The Complexity of Geopolitical Analysis -- Referenced in the Show: Greenland Breakdown - https://jashap.substack.com/p/greenland -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
More from Geopolitical Cousins
Three hundred thousand tons of diesel (tons, not barrels) is what Trump says he extracted from Putin. The deal is easy to mock, but it’s worth understanding why it happened. Diesel is at record highs, and every European leader publicly condemning the move is privately relieved somebody finally told Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries. What the 5D-chess crowd misses is simpler: Ukraine and Iran are now the same war, because diesel trades globally and two kinetic conflicts are squeezing the same supply. From there, the harder question- what comes after Trump? America still wins gold, but it needed a Cameroonian center to beat a team of pudgy Serbs. The games are tighter now. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome (01:02) - Paris Market Fire (02:27) - Trump Diesel Deal Readout (03:55) - Energy War and Hormuz (08:39) - Zelensky Leverage and Midterms (21:14) - After Trump and Multipolarity (37:53) - Limited Force Iran (38:50) - Trump Strategy Document (39:48) - Neocons Versus Deals (42:24) - America Behind Curtain (43:54) - Regime Change Values (50:53) - After Trump Realism (52:46) - Houthis Scenario Menu (54:05) - Trump Houthi Deal (56:58) - Regional Wildcards (01:00:28) - Houthi Strategy Shift (01:01:14) - US Reacts Not Leads (01:02:16) - Voters And Israel Test -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
Scott Bessent really said “trust the process.” Bub, do you know the process? It's the Philadelphia 76ers deliberately being the worst team in basketball for half a decade. Pick a better sports metaphor. Anyway, here’s a conspiracy theory nobody on Wall Street will touch - - - - - The Fed isn’t hiking because of inflation - actual inflation is coming down. It’s hiking because economic agents have started expecting American incoherence as a permanent condition, and that’s the macroeconomic AIDS. They’re targeting oil prices. They’re targeting the war. Also: France might just be Illinois, and why Marine Le Pen in power is better for France than Marine Le Pen in opposition. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Show Intro (00:31) - Hegseth Basketball Challenge (02:09) - Trust the Process Joke (07:25) - Bond Market Basics (14:26) - Is the Economy Really Hot (19:46) - Debt Service and Thin Ice (25:54) - Fed Conspiracy Theory (38:58) - Fed Tool Too Blunt (39:37) - Inflation Hits Real Life (40:13) - ECB vs Fed Mandates (42:59) - Yield Curve Warning Signs (45:32) - Gridlock and Market Risk (46:59) - France Bonds and Le Pen (01:16:06) - Middle East Shipping Shift -- Referenced in the Show:
OpenAI burned $15 million in three days to beat Anthropic to a Millennium Prize problem. Nobody's quite sure whose work they trained on to do it. This week the cousins bring in their science cousin - physicist Dan Green, Marko's college roommate - to explain what AI is actually doing to math, and why the whole thing smells less like a real breakthrough and more like an elaborate flex. And... when a company tells you that their product might end humanity, is that a warning or a pitch deck? Marko has thoughts. Plus: why the dangerous scenario isn't the robot, it's the idiot who trusts it. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Welcome Back and Guest Intro (00:48) - Meet Dan the Science Cousin (04:24) - AI Solves Big Math Problems (09:22) - Backlash and Research Ethics (16:03) - What AI Means for Science (21:47) - Who Pays for Discovery (34:23) - Terminator Talk and Real Risks (45:18) - Corporations vs Paperclip AI (46:58) - Chatbot Intel Near Miss (49:10) - Anti Expert Government Risk (51:59) - Future Robots and Human Agency (58:59) - AI as Godlike Branding (01:03:03) - Nuclear Energy Lessons (01:11:06) - Why AI Writing Feels Wrong -- Referenced in the Show: Dan Green - https://drgreen.physics.ucsd.edu/ -- Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com -- Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world. Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416 Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe -- Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future. Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/ Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro
The Houthis have an email address. You send them your ship's name, your transponder number, and they send you back a bank account. It's all very cultured. And the Iranians could have taken oil to $200 back in March but... They didn't. The Houthis could have flattened the East-West Pipeline seven years ago but... They didn't. So when everybody on Twitter is losing their toupees over Brent at 110, ask the better question: not what could happen, but why it hasn't. This is piracy, not jihad. These guys want to get P - A - I - D. Plus: Brussels quietly builds a fake 28th country, and Sam Altman melting GPUs is just regulatory capture in a hoodie. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Travel-Mode Quick Intro (00:44) - Pipelines Hit and Houthis Return (02:24) - Piracy Logic and Getting Paid (03:18) - Targeting Precision and IRGC Help (05:15) - China Rumors and BRICS Diplomacy (06:50) - Backchannel Talks and US Pullback (09:57) - Oil Prices and Gulf Infighting (12:04) - Midterms Leverage Debate (19:16) - Capabilities Aren't New (23:13) - Energy Diversification Reality Check (24:26) - World Adapts to Tanker Wars (25:07) - EU Speech Reality Check (25:59) - EU Inc and Tax Plans (28:04) - Single Market Stalled (30:19) - Two Speed Europe Shift (31:24) - Telecom Scale Problem (33:45) - Will Europe Execute (34:58) - Why This Time Different (38:20) - Ukraine in the Revival (41:43) - Freeze Conflict Strategy (45:33) - AI Regulation Capture (49:30) - China World Models Next (50:46) - Wrap and Next Episode -- Referenced in the Show:
AfD won 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, and the Twittersphere (x-sphere just doesn't hit, sorry) immediately projected Panzer divisions massing on the Polish border. Is AfD kinda scary right-wing populist? For sure. But every right-wing populist party in Europe has faced this same test over the last decade, and 17 out of 17 came to Jesus on the Euro once they had to actually govern. So is Germany becoming the Fourth Reich?? Unlikely. This is just what happens to a country where too much remains unsayable - about immigration, about Ukraine, about energy - and who fills that vacuum. Also: Greek shippers, making a killing. -- Timestamps: (00:00) - Cold Open and Timing (00:29) - AfD Shock Headlines (02:16) - Europe Media Myths (05:12) - AfD Strategy and Taboos (09:29) - EU Integration Is Settled (12:21) - Not Nazis but Risks (14:18) - East Germany Roots (17:47) - Ukraine and Russia Realism (21:05) - Coalitions and Overton Window (23:58) - Migration and Integration Crunch (32:26) - Long Trend Not Flash (34:42) - East West Guilt Divide (36:53) - Guilt Politics Backfire (37:46) - Teaching History Without Dwelling (39:34) - Sons And Fathers Debate (41:07) - Statues And Memory Wars (42:12) - Germany Flags And Expert Skepticism (43:29) - Why Parliaments Tame Extremes (45:05) - Let AfD Govern Locally (45:47) - Houthis Strike And Oil Risks (48:35) - Greek Shippers Beat Blockades (53:01) - Supply Chains Adapt Over Time (55:25) - Corporate Strategy In Gray Zones (58:29) - Amoral Multipolar Lessons (01:01:47) - Houthi Sponsorship Joke Break (01:02:21) - Ballmer Kawhi And Uncle Dennis (01:03:46) - Clippers Insecurity And Hubris (01:09:43) - Jersey Retirements And Wrap Up -- Referenced in the Show: