Show Notes
Episode 26: Can anyone accurately predict when the stock market will hit a rough patch? Not likely. Although the market's long-term annualized return sits just above 10% and good years are more common than bad years, unexpected outcomes are not unusual. Which means holding a portfolio suitable for all market environments probably makes sense for most investors—as does conducting an investing "fire drill" to determine whether your portfolio is prepared for the unexpected. The 2000–2009 period, often termed the "lost decade," offers a helpful reminder. The annualized return for the S&P 500 was –0.9%. But in 2000 did anyone expect they would lose money over the next 10 years, especially after the index gained an annualized +18.2% in the previous 10 years? Again, not likely. Non-US stocks see similarly unexpected outcomes. During that lost decade in the US, the MSCI All-Country World ex USA index, a widely followed international stock index, gained an annualized +2.7%. Then there's Japan, where the stock market peaked in 1989 and proceeded to go nowhere for the next 28+ years. More recent evidence confirms that investors should expect the unexpected. In 2021, 2023, and 2024, the S&P 500 Index gained more than +25% each year. Through late December of 2025, its year-to-date return was north of +18%. But in 2022 the index lost –18.1%. Note that none of those returns is close to the long-term average. The fact is that stocks often deliver surprising results. Bonds do too. Another example: From 2000 to 2020, the annualized return for the S&P 500 was +6.6%, far below its long-term average. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg U.S. Government Bond Index Long gained +7.8%, higher than its long-term average. In Episode 26 of The Informed Investor, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, Wes Crill, PhD, Senior Client Solutions Director, and Jake DeKinder, Head of Client Communications, examine the high volume of surprises that come with investing and explain why investors should set their expectations accordingly.
LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE: The Informed Investor: Feedback Survey https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/informed-investor-survey "The Informed Investor" on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCyJr6FFig-h1mA7rVP7Mbk0irFw2wA90 Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/ Wes Crill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-crill-77a49417/ Jake DeKinder on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-dekinder-cfa-4105b98/ Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/ Sources: S&P data © 2025 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved; MSCI data © MSCI 2025, all rights reserved; Bloomberg data from Bloomberg. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio.
More from The Informed Investor
Episode 62: Happy Halloween—or is it? At this moment, some investors are probably chewing their fingernails down to nubs as they try to digest the latest frightening financial headlines. "Are Global Stock Markets Headed for a Crash?" "The American Dream of Owning a Home Is Out of Reach for Many as Mortgage Rates Soar (Again)" "The US Debt Tops a Record-Shattering $40 Trillion. Yes, with a T." Eek!! Those are actual headlines from recent articles in the financial media (and just a small sample). Hundreds more are just waiting to scare the bejabbers out of you. But as an investor, if you're worried about the current state of the stock and bond markets, the economy, or the latest geopolitical hot spots, headlines are the last place to look for reassurance. Many, if not most, are designed to make you afraid. The facts, on the other hand, will often do just the opposite. In Episode 62, a special Halloween episode of The Informed Investor podcast, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, Wes Crill, Senior Client Solutions Director, and Jake DeKinder, Head of Client Communications, dress up … and then dress down the headline writers of America to help investors deflate the fear factor. LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE: "Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life" Order the new book by Dimensional Founder David Booth https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0GPDHGH8K/?maas=maas_adg_2F97289929AB0BA26D806A1F81D55D66_afap_abs&ref_=aa_maas&tag=maas&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER Subscribe to the Stay Calm Investing Newsletter https://www.staycalminvesting.com/newsletter?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor For US audiences: Select videos are available as part of an opportunity for CFP® and Investments & Wealth Institute® professionals to earn continuing education (CE) credits https://www.dimensional.com/financial-professionals/ce-credit-experience-d360?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor The Informed Investor: Feedback Survey https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/informed-investor-survey?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor "The Informed Investor" on YouTube The Informed Investor - YouTube Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/ Wes Crill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-crill-77a49417/ Jake DeKinder on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-d-4105b98/ Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor
Episode 61: The allure of index funds, such as broad diversification, low costs, and market-matching returns, may seem undeniable. But recent "reconstitution" in the indexes tracked by such funds tells a different story—one every investor should understand.
Episode 60: Every two years, millions of investors probably ask themselves (and their advisors) whether looming elections demand changes to their investment portfolios. It's an understandable sentiment—and one that demands discussion. But the most important conclusion from these conversations should never change: Since the data doesn't show any strong connection between election results and stock market performance, it's best to vote with your ballot, not your portfolio. No matter how you slice, dice, or take a hatchet to the data, factor in your own political proclivities, or scream about what you think is totally wrong or right about the candidates, market prices have already incorporated all that information (and thousands of other developments, including numerous economic indicators) as investors consider what to do next. This is a well-researched theory of how capital markets work. The implication is that the stock market doesn't really care what you think about this year's midterm elections or the next presidential horse race. Need supporting evidence? Fourteen of 17 presidential terms since 1929, across administrations with both Democratic and Republican chief executives, ended with positive returns for the S&P 500 Index. (S&P data © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global.) Investors shouldn't ignore elections, of course. But their portfolios may benefit from standing pat as politics rile and emotions rock and roll. In Episode 60 of The Informed Investor podcast, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, Wes Crill, Senior Client Solutions Director, and Jake DeKinder, Head of Client Communications, interrogate common myths about the impact of elections on markets and offer sensible answers as investors head to the polls. LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE: "Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life" Order the new book by Dimensional Founder David Booth https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0GPDHGH8K/?maas=maas_adg_2F97289929AB0BA26D806A1F81D55D66_afap_abs&ref_=aa_maas&tag=maas&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER Subscribe to the Stay Calm Investing Newsletter https://www.staycalminvesting.com/newsletter?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor The Informed Investor: Feedback Survey https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/informed-investor-survey?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor "The Informed Investor" on YouTube The Informed Investor - YouTube Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/ Wes Crill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-crill-77a49417/ Jake DeKinder on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-d-4105b98/ Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor For US audiences: Select videos are available as part of an opportunity for CFP® and Investments & Wealth Institute® professionals to earn continuing education (CE) credits https://www.dimensional.com/financial-professionals/ce-credit-experience-d360?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor
Episode 59: What happens when you rethink how financial advice is delivered—and how an industry comes together?
Episode 58: Any financial professional who joined the industry a week after Black Monday—when the stock market suffered its biggest single-day loss—knows something about investment discipline.