Ep 219: Qiao Ma - Is SaaS Dead? The Structural Shift in Growth Investing

In this episode of Inside the Rope, host David Clark and Tom Oryl dive straight into the rapidly evolving private credit sector alongside Raghav Khanna, Co-CIO of Oaktree's Private Credit Wealth Products. As high-profile defaults like the Bathla collapse make local headlines, sophisticated investors are left questioning where real yield ends and structural fragility begins. Raghav breaks down how Oaktree - a firm renowned for its Howard Marks-driven risk discipline and expertise in distressed credit, is analysing current market dislocations, evaluating risk premiums, and underwriting through macroeconomic noise. Key Takeaways: Navigating Market Stress: Analysis of recent defaults and broader systemic concerns in non-bank direct lending.

Host David Clark chats with Dr. Joanna Syroka of Fermat Capital Management to unpack the structural capacity deficit hitting traditional insurance markets and how Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) are stepping in to bridge the gap. As massive systemic shifts push loss potential beyond traditional balance sheet limits, capital markets are proving essential in underwriting modern risk. The conversation explores the burgeoning market for mega-scale AI data center campuses, where concentrated values reaching up to $30 billion require novel risk-transfer structures. The discussion then turns to the virtual concentration of risk in cyber insurance, where digital centralisation mirrors real-world coastal exposure and how forward-thinking issuers are leveraging catastrophe bonds to manage systemic contagion. Finally, Dr. Syroka outlines how sovereign nations are building "financial fortresses" through contingent capital, highlighting how ex-ante disaster risk management enabled Jamaica to receive a credit rating upgrade from Moody’s despite suffering a major GDP shock. Key Takeaways: AI Infrastructure & Insurance Capacity: Multi-billion-dollar AI data center campuses are creating unprecedented risk concentrations that exceed traditional insurance balance sheets, paving the way for ILS and capital market solutions.

Host David Clark sits down with Gary Hui, Portfolio Manager at Geometrica, to unpack how equity investors can consistently generate asymmetric, double-digit returns without relying on leverage. Active managers often struggle with crowded consensus, cognitive bias, and unpredictable market drawdowns - particularly when navigating disruptive thematic shifts like AI capex or sector-wide sell-offs. Gary breaks down Geometrica’s systematic search process, which pairs quantitative machine learning with deep fundamental diligence to spot structural change before it gets priced in. The conversation delves into the mechanics of their barbell strategy: combining dislocated recovery plays like Netflix and ResMed with exponential growth compounders like Celestica and Fujikura. Gary also offers a candid, post-mortem analysis of July’s sharp market drawdown, examining factor risk, prime brokerage leverage unwinds, and the hard lessons that led to refining their risk models. Designed for sophisticated investors who demand rigorous logic over market noise, this conversation provides actionable insights on avoiding left-tail risk and capitalising on market inefficiencies. Systematic Search vs. Idea Generation: Why relying on traditional idea generation limits you to your current corpus of knowledge, and how machine learning screens surface high-conviction, non-consensus opportunities like AppLovin.

In this episode of Inside the Rope, host David Clark welcomes back Rob Tucker, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Chester Asset Management. Capital allocators today are squeezed between speculative AI valuations, sticky inflation, and policy-driven domestic drag. Rob shares his unvarnished framework for allocating across predictable cash flows, tactical cyclicals, and uncorrelated ballast like gold. The conversation dives straight into pressing market frictions: the economic viability of the global AI CapEx wave, the rise of ultra-low-cost open-source LLMs, and why the US tech boom echoes late-1998 tech bubble warning signs. They also unpack Australia’s business sentiment slump, the structural pressures on high-multiple SaaS incumbents like Xero, and why the ballooning US national debt makes a compelling case for gold and gold equities over a multi-year horizon.

David Clark sits down with John Knox, Head of Australia and New Zealand at Ares Management, to pull back the curtain on how elite alternative asset managers unlock value in today's private markets. From scaling a massive $640B+ platform to analysing the structural shifts driving the boom in private credit, Knox breaks down how institutional investors successfully navigate market volatility and avoid correlation traps. The conversation pivots into one of high finance's most dynamic frontiers: institutional sports investing. Knox shares behind-the-scenes perspectives on structuring high-conviction deals, ranging from vintage car-collateralised debt for McLaren Racing to equity positions in the Miami Dolphins and media rights strategies across global cricket leagues. Grounded in hard-won lessons from Wall Street to regional executive leadership, this discussion provides well-read investors with actionable frameworks for evaluating illiquid real assets, understanding shifting streaming economics, and building resilient, compounding portfolios.