Episode 1022: The $93 Billion Question for Nvidia. Meta Has a Big Problem. Google, Microsoft Stock

In this episode, Martin examines Cerebras and whether its AI chip architecture could challenge Nvidia’s dominance in accelerated computing. He also lays out his bullish thesis on MongoDB and discusses the factors that could support a $400 valuation target, before turning to Ginkgo Bioworks and explaining his bearish outlook on the company, including its business model, financial performance, valuation, and investment risks.

In this episode, Martin reflects on a major loss from his short position in Kodiak Sciences and examines how a short squeeze moved the trade against him. He discusses position sizing, risk management, conviction, and the lessons he draws from losing millions on the position before turning to Nvidia, where he explores ways investors can search for alpha by analyzing expectations, valuation, AI demand, and potential market inefficiencies.

In this episode, Martin reflects on a costly short position in Kodiak Sciences and examines what went wrong with the trade, including the risks of conviction, timing, and unexpected catalysts. He also discusses the possibility of OpenAI eventually going public and what such a move could mean for investors, before explaining why he believes many financial models fail to capture reality and how assumptions, probabilities, and changing business conditions can undermine even detailed forecasts.

In this episode, Martin examines Meta’s relationship with Scale AI and discusses how the company could use its investment and Scale AI’s valuation to strengthen its position in the artificial intelligence race. He also questions Intel’s characterization of demand and examines the underlying semiconductor-market dynamics before revisiting Moderna, discussing its pipeline, valuation, catalysts, and the risks shaping his current investment outlook.

In this episode, Martin lays out his bearish thesis on Kodiak Sciences and explains the factors driving his cautious outlook on the biotech company. He examines its clinical pipeline, trial data, competitive landscape, regulatory considerations, and valuation, discussing the risks and catalysts he believes investors should consider when evaluating the stock.