#28: What High-Stakes Poker Tells Us About Making Better Decisions | Maria Konnikova
Two Percent with Michael EasterShow Notes
Maria Konnikova earned a PhD in psychology at Columbia studying human decision-making. She then took her research into the most unforgiving laboratory there is: the poker table. From playing her first hand of poker in 2017, to training under the legendary Erik Seidel, and becoming a poker champion, Maria sits down with Michael the day before playing in the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas, to share the secrets to making winning decisions. They break down why the best hand wins only 12% of the time and what that means for skill and luck in your own life. Maria explains the illusion of control, winner's tilt, and how to actually read tells (watch the hands, not the face). She also covers why a 1% edge matters more than you think, how to avoid the risk of ruin, and when to walk away from a bad investment, a bad job, or a bad friendship. Maria is the author of “The Biggest Bluff: How I learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win.” Her other books include The Confidence Game and Mastermind. She also writes The Leap, a weekly Substack about decision making. Two Percent is hosted by Michael Easter. Today’s episode was produced by Joey Fischground, Robbie Hiser, Dana Brawer and Julia Nutter. From Kaleidoscope, our executive producers are Mangesh Hattikudur and Kate Osborn and Julia Nutter. From iHeart, our executive producers are Katrina Norvell and Nikki Ettore. Our Head of Video is Maria Paz Mendez Hodes. This episode was edited by Ryan Mulhern. Our theme music is by the Heater Manager. GET A FREE GUIDE TO EXAMPLES OF MISOGI. GO TO https://www.twopct.com AND ENTER YOUR EMAIL. I share similar insights around health and wellness here:https://substack.com/@michaeleasterhttps://instagram.com/michael_easter/https://linkedin.com/in/michael-easter-b208848/https://facebook.com/easter.michaelhttps://tiktok.com/@michael_easter6https://x.com/Michael_Easter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More from Two Percent with Michael Easter
Up to half of Americans say their sleep is bad, and the rules for fixing it keep piling up. Michael speaks with David Samson, an evolutionary anthropologist at the University of Toronto and author of The Sleepless Ape, about why modern people sleep longer and better than hunter-gatherers yet worry about it far more, why our body clocks are the real mismatch, top sleep myths, and which sleep advice is worth following. They discuss:
Most of us avoid anything we might fail at. Michael speaks with Dr. Marcus Elliott about Misogi, his yearly challenge with about a 50 percent chance of failure, and why we overestimate the cost of failing, the benefits of Misogi, and what the data on elite athletes still can't measure. In addition to creating the modern Misogi, Marcus founded P3, the world's top sports science lab. They discuss:
Brian Driscoll became acting director of the FBI through what he believes was a clerical error in 2025. He was then asked to hand over the names of thousands of FBI employees who worked the January 6 investigations, which would have placed their careers and safety in jeopardy. He resisted and became a legend in the bureau. Brian told Michael what pushing back cost him, and why he calls "it is what it is" the most accepted form of surrender. They discussed:
Michael speaks with Harvard evolutionary biologist Dan Lieberman, author of Fed Up. They talked about how humans didn't evolve to think about what to eat, the history of food and humans, what Dan learned trying popular diets for the book, biggest diet myths, and where Dan lands on exercise and weight loss. They covered:
A lot of us think of quitting as a path to failure. Michael speaks with Lindsay Crouse, the former New York Times writer, editor and producer, lifelong distance runner and author of The Case for Quitting, about when perseverance backfires, how to tell meaningful suffering from the pointless kind, and the signs it's time to walk away. They discuss: