Because Why?! The Science and Society Pod.

What will life at 1.5+ degrees look like?

Because Why?! The Science and Society Pod.

Show Notes

We are officially out of time to prevent hitting 1.5 degrees. Yep - earlier last week, the World Meteorological Organisation said that we are going to hit 1.5 degrees of global heating by 2027, which is just two years away. So I thought we’d have an episode about what that really means - because what actually changes at 1.5 degrees? And what happens if we go beyond that? In this episode: Why scientists identified 1.5 degrees as a milestone What a 1.5 degree increase will actually cause Where we are today with global heating The damage to the oceans and natural world from global warming Why a 1.5 degree change is now baked in What terrifying things happen at 2 degrees The places that could become uninhabitable in the next few decades The huge impact on cities and the losses we can expect over the next 80 years The big impacts on crops, people, and health at 2 degrees The economic impact we can expect from climate change over the next few decades What happens at 2.7 degrees, which is expected by 2100 Why I don’t think this will be our future The single most powerful thing you can do to prevent this dark future

Episode Sources: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update 2024 https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/global-temperatures-set-reach-new-records-next-five-years NASA Earth Observatory – “Earth Is Storing More Heat” (summary of Cheng et al. 2023 Earth-energy-imbalance work) https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152431/earth-is-storing-more-heat von Schuckmann, K. et al. 2023 – “Heat stored in the Earth system: where does the energy go?” Earth System Science Data https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023 Cheng, L. et al. 2023 – “Record-setting ocean heat content and Earth system imbalance in 2023.” Advances in Atmospheric Sciences https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2 Dessler, A. E. 2021 – “Water-vapour feedback.” Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-082420-064024 Copernicus Emergency Management Service – Rapid Mapping EMERG0325, Emilia-Romagna Floods (2023) https://rapidmapping.emergency.copernicus.eu/EMSR632 Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) – State of the Climate 2022 https://www.csiro.au/state-of-the-climate NIWA – Climate-change projections and extreme-rainfall trends for New Zealand (2024 update) https://niwa.co.nz/climate/research-projects/climate-change/extreme-weather NOAA Coral Reef Watch – Global Coral Bleaching Event Status Update, April 2024 https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov Gatti, L. V. et al. 2021 – “Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change.” Nature 595:388–393 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6 Trathan, P. N. et al. 2023 – “Climate-driven population decline of emperor penguins.” Communications Earth & Environment 4:148 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00772-3 Met Office (UK) – “One billion people face deadly heat stress at 2 °C warming.” Press release, Oct 2021 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/cop26-heat-stress IPCC – Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (2018), Chapter 3 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ IPCC – Sixth Assessment Report Synthesis (2023) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/synthesis-report/ University of New South Wales – West Antarctic ice-sheet collapse threshold study (2022) https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-may-have-passed-point-no-return Project Drawdown – “The Powerful Role of Household Actions in Solving Climate Change” (2023) https://drawdown.org/insights/the-powerful-role-of-household-actions-in-solving-climate-change FAO – “Climate change could push 183 million more people into hunger by 2050.” News release, Sept 2021 https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/climate-change-could-push-183-million-more-people-to-hunger/en World Food Programme – “What if the world warms 3 °C? Hunger and the climate crisis.” 2022 Find the rest of the sources on our website and Substack!

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