Understanding US-China Relations Right Now with Nathan Labenz
"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik TorenbergShow Notes
In this week’s episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith, with special guest Nathan Labenz (host of AI podcast The Cognitive Revolution) breaks down the current landscape of U.S.-China relations and how once-allies became rivals under Xi Jinping's aggressive strategies. While China shows growing AI capabilities like DeepSeek, Smith emphasizes that the real concern isn't about AI models but rather military applications like autonomous drones and precision weapons, suggesting that the next decade represents a critical period for managing tensions and establishing deterrence.
--
🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.
-- RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Check out Nathan Labenz's podcast The Cognitive Revolution Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast/
-- Highlights from the Episode:
The US and China were largely de facto allies throughout the 20th century, except for brief periods like the Korean War.
Xi Jinping's "great changes unseen in a century" doctrine signals intent to challenge US-led global order.
US chip export controls have been effective at limiting China's advanced chip manufacturing.
Military technology prioritizes maintaining a technological edge in precision weapons and autonomous systems, with conventional deterrence still key despite nuclear capabilities, while chip controls focus on preserving advantages in military applications over civilian technology.
Concerns about AI competition include skepticism over maintaining US "AI supremacy," the potential difficulty in containing AI capabilities like those of DeepSeek, and the risk that an aggressive approach could escalate conflict.
-- SPONSORS:
NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102
Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102.
AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world.
-- SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: [email protected]
-- FOLLOW ON X: @labenz @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia
-- RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Dwarkesh podcast with Sarah Paine https://youtu.be/fx6fakjQBdo?si=FR4ZGTGWzXsO4__E Book: Rush Doshi, The Long Game https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/52617647-the-long-game Book: John Mearsheimer Conventional Deterrence https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224128.Conventional_Deterrence Noahpinion essay: Simple Lessons from China's Big AI Breakthrough https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-simple-lessons-from-chinas-big Noahpinion Essay: The Elemental Foe https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-elemental-foe?utm_source=publication-search
More from "Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg
Noah Smith joins Erik Torenberg at the 2026 American Dynamism Summit in Washington, D.C. to discuss Anthropic's relationship with Washington, bioterrorism risks stemming from AI, why Noah isn't worried about AI causing job loss, and more.
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah and Erik are joined by Flock Safety CEO to cover America's crime crisis and how to solve it with technology. They explore international comparisons, why America's crime problem is unique, how cameras can deter crime, tradeoffs in crime reduction, and more. - Sponsors: Notion AI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done. Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover Europe's economic future, how internet discourse has changed politics, the rise of identitarian populism on both the right and left in America, and more.
In this episode of Econ 102 originally aired on the Sphere Podcast, Noah Smith and Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry sit down for a debate on immigration. They cover the philosophical underpinnings of their arguments, where they find common ground, border enforcement, deportation, public opinion, and more.
In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.