You Project 80, the Line Is 72.5... You Might Have Nothing | Presented by ProphetX
Circles Off - Sports Betting PodcastsShow Notes
You project a running back for 80 rushing yards. The line is 72.5. Nearly eight yards clear — an easy over, right? By the end of this video, that same exact setup might have no bet at all.
Rob Pizzola walks through the full process of turning a raw projection into an actual price — not a vibe, not a gut call, a real number you can trust. Starting from a simple two-minute version anyone can use, then building layer by layer into how the market actually prices probability, why your model's mean and the market's median aren't the same thing, and why that gap is the single most common way a good projection turns into a bad bet. By the end, you'll be able to price any prop, and every alternate line on the board, from nothing but a projection and a little bit of math.
This is Circles Off, part of The Hammer Betting Network.
⬇️ Download the Excel file: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j2dlXlL1fgN4rLoI1Q_mTEFpwpnXvr0f/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=110512856455811077194&rtpof=true&sd=true
INSTRUCTIONS: Once the file is open, in the top left go to File > Download > Microsoft Excel (.xlsx)
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SHOW INDEX
0:00 - The Question Everyone Gets Wrong
1:42 - A Projection Is Not A Probability
3:30 - LAYER 1: The Two (Eight*) Minute Version
11:22 - LAYER 2: What The Market Actually Thinks
14:52 - Sponsored by ProphetX
16:41 - LAYER 2: The Player's Real Spread
19:15 - Volume vs Efficiency
23:20 - LAYER 3: The Thing That Flips Bets
29:10 - Which Props This Applies To
30:59 - Pricing Every Alternate Line
33:01 - The Honest Caveat
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
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