Show Notes
With longer-term U.S. interest rates rising and no plan to reduce the budget deficit, is a U.S. national debt crisis imminent? Topics covered include: Why S&P, Fitch, and now Moody's stripped the U.S. of its pristine AAA debt rating How the U.S. national debt dynamics compare to Greece, Italy, and Japan What are four things investors should monitor for signs that the national debt crisis is worsening or spiraling out of control
Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Moody's Ratings downgrades United States ratings to Aa1 from Aaa; changes outlook to stable—Moody's Ratings Research Update: United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative—S&P Global Interest Expense and Average Interest Rates on the National Debt FY 2010 – FYTD 2025—FiscalData.Treasury.gov The Stark Math on the GOP Tax Plan: It Doesn’t Cut the Deficit by Richard Rubin—The Wall Street Journal The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055—Congressional Budget Office Walmart says higher prices could hit this month due to tariffs by Natalie Sherman—BBC Post on May 17th, 2025; 7:27 AM by Donald J. Trump—Truth Social Walmart responds to Trump comment that retailer should ‘eat the tariffs’ by Kyler Swaim—The Hill What’s behind Japan’s High Government Debt? by YiLi Chien and Ashley H. Stewart—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Related Episodes 487: Are We Heading for a 2030s Depression? Global Economic and Population Shifts 479: National Debt Master Class Finale – What To Do
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I provide a short update on Money for the Rest of Us and introduce our listener survey. All survey participants will get access to an exclusive podcast episode on my worst investing mistakes and what I learned. Take the Money for the Rest of Us Listener Survey See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
In this episode, we explore why the income we earn isn't the same as the return. We show how option income strategies work, what their historical returns have been, what drives the return, and what reasonable return expectations are. We show why option income strategies have a positive expected return while sports betting has a negative expected return. Finally, we look at other areas where we confuse income with the total return. Sponsors Money for the Rest of Us Retirement Investing Cohort Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Episode slide deck Variance Risk Premia by Peter Carr and Liuren Wu—NYU Cross section of option returns and idiosyncratic stock volatility by Jie Cao and Bing Han—The Journal of Financial Economics The Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options by Joost Driessen, Pascal J. Maenhout, Grigory Vilkov—SSRN Cross-section of option returns and volatility by Amit Goyal and Alessio Saretto—The Journal of Financial Economics The Art of Put Selling: A 10 Year Study by John Marshall, Krag Gregory, Katherine Fogertey—Goldman Sachs Low Stress Bets Related Episodes 557: Don’t Fall in the Dividend Trap 549: Why Catastrophe Bonds Are Yielding 12%, and Should You Invest? 544: Sports Betting Is Not Investing Article: Tail Events and Tail Risk See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Bad actors will use AI to disrupt the financial system, transportation networks, and utilities. We should prepare now for this inevitability. We share how in this episode. We also explain why the bull market in gold will likely continue. Topics covered include: Why the OpenAI agentic AI breach is so disturbing How do we prepare for cyberattacks Why gold should be one of the assets we hold apart from the financial system How the historical relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken down To what extent are central banks selling dollars to buy gold How gold ETF flows influence the gold price