Chris Vermeulen: Higher Oil, Dollar, and Interest Rates mean Coming Chaos for the Markets
The Competent InvestorShow Notes
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer at 'The Technical Traders'. Chris discusses the broadening of the stock market, with the MAG 7 stocks losing momentum and money rotating into other sectors like semiconductors and small caps. He sees this as a sign of strength, with the market potentially poised for one more big push higher. Chris analyzes the technical indicators, noting the positive price action, bullish moving average trends, and improving sentiment.
Regarding gold and silver, Chris is cautious, viewing the recent rally as a potential bear trap that could quickly reverse. He believes the long-term trends remain bearish, and any further upside will need to break key resistance levels to confirm a shift in the trend. Chris is also closely watching the US dollar, which he believes could continue strengthening, putting further pressure on precious metals. Looking at the broader market, Chris sees potential risks on the horizon, including rising interest rates, inflation, and the possibility of a financial crisis. He believes the best strategy is to remain nimble, following the price trends and being quick to protect capital when necessary.
Chris suggests cash and the US dollar as potential defensive positions if a significant market downturn occurs.
Overall, Chris maintains a cautious yet opportunistic outlook, ready to adapt his positioning as market conditions evolve. He emphasizes the importance of focusing on price action and trends rather than emotions or biases when navigating the current market environment.
Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:16 - Market Broadening Beyond Mag 7 00:03:42 - Price Time Sentiment Factors 00:05:54 - Moving Averages Bullish Signals 00:07:08 - Sentiment And FOMO Analysis 00:13:00 - Currency Dollar Trends 00:15:52 - Interest Rates Outlook 00:21:02 - Oil Chart Analysis 00:26:15 - Gold Silver Behavior Shift 00:34:27 - Lumber Economic Indicator 00:41:23 - Recovery Trap Warning 00:45:55 - New Book & Wrap Up
Guest:
Chris Vermeulen — Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders Chris Vermeulen is the Founder & Chief Investment Officer of The Technical Traders and the visionary mind behind Asset Revesting. In his book Asset Revesting – How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, he lays out this investment framework.
Chris launched his financial career at 16, parlaying his knack for trading and risk management into funding his final year of college, where he earned a business diploma in operations management. By his twenties, he had achieved financial independence as a full-time entrepreneur and trader. After a setback—blowing up a trading account—Chris dedicated himself to treating trading as a business, completing the Trading Strategy Mastery and Trading Is Your Business courses.
A technical analysis expert, he devises systematic methods to spot market opportunities and control portfolio risk, rejecting traditional buy-and-hold approaches that cling to depreciating assets. His efficient asset allocation models balance short- and long-term strategies to minimize drawdowns and consistently outperform benchmarks. Those seeking reliable capital preservation and growth turn to his proven techniques. Website X Amazon Books
📈 The Competent Investor Markets, macro, and the minds that move money.
Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles. RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app. Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter. X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary. YouTube — Full video episodes.
More from The Competent Investor
I sat down with Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland and author of Gold Matters, for a conversation that ranged from French riots to the COMEX silver squeeze. What struck me most was his framing of today's gold setup as fundamentally stronger than the 1970s bull market.
I've had Rory Johnston on before, but this conversation felt different. The oil market Rory describes isn't just tight—it's structurally broken in ways we've never seen.
Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management, argues that the US economy is trapped in a self-perpetuating doom loop driven by massive deficits and rising interest rates, which he believes will inevitably lead to a sovereign debt crisis or hyperinflation. He explains that as the Federal Reserve raises rates to combat persistent inflation, the government's interest expense balloons—potentially consuming half or all of tax revenue within years—forcing even larger deficits that fuel more inflation.
AJ Signal, a former military strategist and current geopolitical risk advisor, outlines a framework for predicting conflict by monitoring five logistical signals that nations cannot easily fake: medical mobility, energy, finance, and munitions. He explains how, just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the movement of blood banks to the front line served as an undeniable indicator of imminent war, because the cold-chain logistics for blood are too complex to be a bluff. Applying this lens today, he observes the U.S. military moving blood supplies into both Europe and the Asia-Pacific, which, combined with other indicators, suggests preparations for a potential ground operation against Iran.
Michael Pento, President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, joins Tom Bodrovics to discuss his increasingly cautious market outlook. Pento’s model currently sits in sectors three and four, indicating stasis or slight reflation, but he anticipates a shift to sectors one and two by 2027. He has neutralized his portfolio for the first time since December 2021, reflecting his be Pento argues that the Federal Reserve is raising short-term rates while long-term rates are also rising, creating pressure on a "triumvirate of bubbles"—credit, real estate, and equities. He attributes this to inflation remaining above target for over five years, foreign creditors abandoning US Treasuries in favor of gold, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The US savings rate is near historic lows, limiting demand for government debt while deficits remain massive. He warns that AI-related debt issuance, potentially a trillion dollars this year, is fueling inflation and competing with Treasuries for scarce savings. He dismisses the idea that renewed quantitative easing could solve the problem, calling such measures palliative and likely to trigger a stagflationary environment.