Summary
Recent voting figures reveal a significant turnout, with 68,000 votes cast on the first day of the election, surpassing the numbers from 2023. This early turnout has sparked speculation among conspiracy theorists regarding potential voter suppression and irregularities, particularly as the voting coincided with a public holiday. However, experts suggest that while high enrollment is important, actual voter turnout is the key metric for a successful election. Historically, turnout has been below the desired 80%, with only 77% participating in the last election.
Critics of the conspiracy theories, such as Trevor Mallard, face backlash for their claims of voter suppression, with some suggesting their arguments lack credibility. Observers note that the current election appears predictable, characterized by a lack of transformative policies and a focus on minor issues that attract media attention. Many voters seem to have already made their decisions, indicating that the election may be more about confirming existing preferences rather than changing the political landscape. The hope is for continued high turnout and a fair electoral process, free from excuses from any losing side.
Show Notes
The figures keep defying the reality. 68,000 votes were cast on Monday. That day was a problem according to the conspiracy theorists who suggested that not only had enrolling closed early, but the opening day of voting was a public holiday and for some reason voting on a day off may prove to be some sort of issue. At 68,000, that is more than in 2023. So what does that mean? Nothing. But you could suggest it's an early turnout, which means a bigger turnout by the time this is over. A bigger turnout would be welcome because we should all be interested in democracy and, more importantly, actually participating in democracy. It's one thing to enrol, and here is the real story that the conspiracy theorists might like to spend more energy on: enrolment is not as important as turnout. Being on a roll isn't as important as actually voting. Last time only 77% turned out. That’s not great. You need to well and truly crack 80% for a good day at the office. The conspiracy folk need to be careful because when this washes out, they run the risk of looking like nutters. Trevor Mallard mouthing off on social media about his hall being closed, then banging on about voter suppression, had 'tin hat' written all over it, not to mention his inability to google a polling place that was open. My guess, if you want one, is an early flourish of voting indicates my long-held suspicion that this is one of your more predictable elections. This is a bloc election. The bloc that runs the place deserves three more years, or not. There are not actually a lot of game-changing policies. There is a lot of small policy designed to get daily clicks from the media. I'm convinced the vast majority of us know who we are voting for and have known for some time, so day one was a chance to tick a box and get on with life. My great hope is it continues, turn out is high, the Mallard's and tin hatters get back to their Telegram feeds and if the left lose, they don’t use it as an excuse. Because that would be what a sore loser would do. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
More from Election 2026
Labour’s idea of helping people living in state houses get into the property market is one of those things that might sound good or feel good, but doesn’t take into account a whole lot of practicalities. Which anyone who has actually owned a home will know about. Anyone taking part in Labour’s scheme would have $100 from their state house rent deposited into a trust account each week and, once there was enough for a 5 percent deposit, they could use it to buy the house they live in. Murray Edridge runs the Wellington City Mission. He’s quite enthusiastic about it because he reckons the deposit is the big hurdle. But saving for the deposit through this scheme is one thing. Paying the mortgage off on an ongoing basis is another. That’s if someone living in a state house could even get a mortgage in the first place. Not to mention the other costs that come with owning a home. Rates. Maintenance. Insurance. Because, let’s say someone did get enough for a deposit through this scheme, they would have done it with a portion of their rent being kept aside by the state. Very different when you’re the one with the mortgage. Tell that to Murray Edridge from the City Mission in Wellington, though. He says he’s seen something similar to this work before and he reckons it could work again. This is the Family Benefit Capitalisation Scheme, which let families with kids get their Family Benefit payments in advance in a lump sum, which they could then use for either a deposit on their first home, put towards building a new house, or use for necessary structural additions or repairs. The difference to what Labour is proposing is that scheme, which ran from 1958 until 1986, was available to everyone, not just people living in state houses. By the way, in case you’re wondering how this fits with Labour’s criticisms of state houses being sold, its housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty says they’ve thought about that. And, for every state house sold to a tenant, they’d replace it with three new ones. He reckons there are 1,100 tenants who could, eventually, be in a position to buy. So that would be 3,300 new state houses that Labour would have to build over time as well. While I would like to like this policy, I think it’s one of those feel-good ideas that promises way more than it can deliver. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
When I look at Labour's campaign and I look at National's campaign, it's like, look, I'll do it for you next time. Seriously, when something is being done so badly, you think, you know what? I can do that so much better. They've had shocking campaigns, both of the main parties. Just negative, silly stuff. And yesterday, Labour had an absolute clanger. Of all the issues and all the policies that Labour could have come up with to attract voters, to point out deficiencies in the Coalition Government, why on earth did they have to decide on housing as one of their last big pushes before the election? You'll have heard Kieran McAnulty yesterday announcing a new rent to buy scheme that would allow public housing tenants to save for a house deposit. $100 a week from their taxpayer subsidised rent would be credited towards a house deposit with the funds held in a trust account. The scheme would help people save $5,200 a year, Labour says, and allow tenants to accumulate enough to put down a deposit on a home. Public housing tenants would have the option to buy the home they're living in. Labour said that for each house sold, three more would be built in its place. Really? What's your track record like on building houses, Labour? Pretty damn poor. Three more would be built in its place? Labour would have been turfed out after one term were it not for Covid last time round because of their failures of execution when it came to policy. One of their biggest embarrassments was KiwiBuild, the building of houses. 100,000 houses were promised. Remember that? And everybody went, oh, I don't think so. No, no, I think you've got that wrong. And it wasn't just people like me having a rick and going, I don't think you'll be able to do 100,000, it was people in the industry going, no, that's not going to happen. No, they knew best, Labour did. They went ahead, they promised it. 100,000 houses would be built for hardworking Kiwis. Total amount of houses built: 2,003. Quite a big differential. 100,000 promised, 2,003 delivered. So forgive me if I call BS on Labour's ability to build three houses for every one sold, unless they go down the Kāinga Ora route where they damn near bankrupted the country building houses at any cost. We've only just got Kāinga Ora under control after the build at any cost order was given by the last Labour government. There are two policy areas Labour should be staying well away from: law and order and housing. They are proven failures in both areas, unless they're willing to spend anything at all and lock other young people out of the housing market by buying up, spending money we don't have, and paying it down on the never never. This latest announcement, if you are living, say, in GI in Auckland in a state house, which is being gentrified, a little suburb that's being gentrified, how long would you have to live there before you'd saved even for a 5% deposit? If you're living in Greymouth in a Kāinga Ora house, you might in seven and a half years have enough to put down a 5% deposit loan on your home. But it's sticking two fingers to hardworking young people who are working and who are renting and who are saving for their first home. And it is nothing like the capitalisation of family benefit that McAnulty referred to when he was talking to Heather du Plessis Allan last night. "There'd be many people listening to your show who bought their home or their parents bought their home by capitalising the child benefit. And that set them up for life. Now, we haven't had a scheme like that for a very long time. And the announcement today to expand the 5% deposit and also have a scheme to actually get Kāinga Ora tenants out of state housing, out of a poverty trap and into home ownership, I think is something that will benefit the whole country. And I reckon it'll actually get broad support across the political spectrum." Will it? I'll be fascinated to find out. If we look at capitalisation of the family benefit, that cam
It's Politics Wednesday, which means Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen are back with Mike Hosking to dig into the biggest stories of the week thus far. With the election just under two weeks away, they discussed how things are faring in their electorates and the ongoing drama around voter registrations. They also touched on the situation around Rakesh Naidoo and the resignation of Fire and Emergency's CEO. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
National's Christopher Luxon says it's great to see so many people already showing up to vote. Nearly 70 thousand people cast their ballots on day one of advance voting. That's slightly more than the same time at the last election. Luxon told Mike Hosking he's hoping that's a sign people are going to give his government another crack. He says people understand it's been a difficult three years, but that his plan just needs more time as it's starting to work. When it comes to the economy, the Prime Minister's blaming the conflict in the Middle East for headline inflation remaining stubbornly high. Economists are predicting the Reserve Bank's will lift the OCR by 25 basis points this afternoon, taking it to 3%. Inflation's running at 3.7%, outside the target band of 1–3%. Luxon told Hosking the war's pushed up oil prices around the world, and how you respond to it matters – you can't just get the money hose and spray cash around. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Wellington City Missioner says Labour's rent-to-own scheme could help more people own a home. The party wants $100 of Kainga Ora tenants' weekly rent put towards a home deposit. Labour would also expand eligibility for 5% home deposits by increasing the income threshold to $300,000. Wellington City Missioner Murray Edridge told Mike Hosking this could help make people's dreams of owning a home a reality. He says the issue for a lot of people isn't the amount of repayment whether it's rent or a mortgage, it's getting a deposit. Edridge told Hosking these types of schemes have worked in the past. He says his parents along with many other built their homes by capitalising their family benefit. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.