Show Notes
The winds of change are upon us. The forces currently shaping Australian and global markets feel more whipsaw and shape-shifting than ever before and investors today must contend with a far broader set of variables. As Livewire’s Chris Conway put it: "When I was coming up, admittedly many moons ago in markets, there was only three things that you needed to pay attention to have a handle on the macro, and that was inflation, interest rates, and growth. Now we have to worry about policy mistakes, housing, AI, deglobalisation and US exceptionalism, to name but a few." So is it the same game with more moving parts, or is it genuinely more complex? That’s the question we put to our panellists at Livewire Live:
Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist at AMP; Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management; and Roy Keenan, co-head of Australian Fixed Income of Yarra Capital.
Please note this panel was filmed 22nd September, one week prior to the RBA's September board meeting announcement. Timecodes:
00:00 - Introduction & Market Complexity Poll 01:05 - Is the RBA Risking Over-Tightening Rates? 03:04 - Inflation Persistence vs. Consumer Resilience 05:09 - What the Bond Market Signals for RBA Policy 06:52 - Predictions for the Upcoming September RBA Meeting 08:51 - Housing Market Outlook & Correction Risks 11:26 - Banking Buffers & Equity Valuations 15:18 - Government Debt, Deficits & Central Bank Independence 21:22 - Asset Allocation in a High-Deficit Environment 23:05 - The Impact of AI, Data Infrastructure & Global Trade 28:11 - Rethinking US Exceptionalism & Australian Opportunities 34:16 - Q&A: Corporate Balance Sheets, Rate Cut Calls & Credit Markets
General Advice Warning Livewire gives readers access to information and educational content provided by financial services professionals and companies (”Livewire Contributors”). Livewire does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under section 911A(2)(eb) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any advice given. Any advice on this site is general in nature and does not take into consideration your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before making a decision please consider these and any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Livewire has commercial relationships with some Livewire Contributors.
More from The Rules of Investing
Last time veteran property invesrtor Andrew Parsons joined The Rules of Investing, he warned that Australia had its head in the sand on the prickly issue of housing. Fast forward two years, and affordability and the supply of new housing remain unresolved. In this episode, Parsons breaks down the state of the property cycle and where Resolution Capital is identifying the strongest structural demand. He also shares a candid view on the challenge of affordable housing, which he says isn't unique to Australia.
Dr David Allen from Plato Investment Management examines how behavioural biases shape investment decisions. His presentation covers overconfidence, the hot hand fallacy, loss aversion, anchoring, base rates, herding and confirmation bias. Topics include:
A handful of powerful megatrends are driving trillions in investment. Here’s what’s behind them and how investors can gain exposure. Speakers:
5 Shocking Predictions brings together bold investment forecasts spanning Australian shares, bonds, Chinese technology, geopolitics and energy. The presentations explore:
The ASX 200 looks expensive, economic growth is subdued, and higher interest rates are putting renewed pressure on valuations. But that doesn’t mean there’s no value left in the Australian market. At Livewire Live, First Sentier Investors’ Dushko Bajic, L1 Capital’s James Hawkins and Ausbil Investment Management’s Arden Jennings were asked where they are still finding opportunities on the ASX. All three are looking beyond the market’s largest companies, but their approaches differ considerably. Bajic is finding opportunities in businesses exposed to major investment cycles, including electrification, AI infrastructure, defence and mining. Hawkins is backing a concentrated portfolio of companies where he sees clear paths to earnings growth, alongside defensive dividend payers. Jennings, meanwhile, sees an opportunity emerging in beaten-up Australian software stocks. They also debate the outlook for interest rates, the impact of higher oil prices, what investors should avoid in the current environment and whether the ASX will be higher or lower 12 months from now. And when asked for their best ideas, they nominate three very different stocks: logistics software company WiseTech Global, electrical contractor Genus Plus and The Lottery Corporation. Time Codes