Show Notes
Paul Henry is standing for ACT and Taine Randell for New Zealand First. Oliver and Damien ask whether celebrity candidates actually win votes, and why New Zealand tends to produce the reverse, politicians who become famous through politics. They then unpack deadweight loss and why higher taxes change behaviour in ways revenue forecasts often ignore. And finally, they turn to MBIE's failed biometric project and whether New Zealand has created a permanent bureaucratic class too insulated from ministers and too weakly accountable when things go wrong.
More from Free to Disagree
Christopher Luxon is not getting much credit from corporate New Zealand, with this year’s Mood of the Boardroom survey rating him poorly on political management and uniting the country. Oliver and Damien discuss the business community’s dissatisfaction with Luxon and Nicola Willis, along with the survey’s findings on AI adoption and whether businesses are turning their enthusiasm for the technology into real productivity gains. They then turn to economic reform, from Greece’s fiscal turnaround and Australia’s stagnation to a disagreement over Bill English’s record. They finish by examining rising antisemitism in Australia, what is driving it and whether New Zealand faces the same risks.
Chris Bishop passed the new Planning Act with one working day to spare, and may not be in the next Parliament to see it work. Damien accused him of regulatory capture earlier this year and now says he has achieved more in three years than most politicians manage in a career. The polls take over from there, with Te Pāti Māori on 0.4 per cent while holding several electorates, and National and Labour’s fiscal plans separated by a rounding error. The episode ends on Donald Trump, after a week that included a planned live-streamed execution, a diesel deal with Putin and a suggestion that Ukraine should replace its president.
Three polls landed this week, with National under 30 per cent on the party vote while holding 44 electorate seats, and Opportunity sitting either side of the threshold depending on which poll you read. The question is whether National’s voters have gone tactical or left the party altogether.
The Treasury's pre-election update showed spending up, revenue down and debt rising after three years of a government elected on restraint. Oliver and Damien ask who ends up as finance minister after 7 November, and whether any of them will confront superannuation and interest heading for $44 billion by 2031. They then turn to John Key, who has warned the National Party conference against tactical voting, with a National overhang now a real prospect. They finish the episode on National and Labour's combined share falling to 56 per cent, a historic low, which Oliver's new Quadrant essay traces to the big parties losing their members, their loyalty and their links to the communities they once represented.
Nicky Hager's new book on the Taxpayers' Union has had several of its claims publicly contradicted within days of publication. Oliver and Damien discuss the fallout and what it has already cost the organisation. Next, 51 prominent New Zealanders signed an open letter to every party leader about property rights and freedom of contract, and Oliver explains why several chief executives who agreed with every word would not put their names to it. And finally, they turn to the economics behind the proposed Foodstuffs breakup, and the report the government says backs its case.