Mexico Matters

To Be More or Not to Be North American: That is the Question

Mexico Matters

Show Notes

In this episode, Mariana is joined by Luis de la Calle, an international economist, former NAFTA negotiator and CEO of CMM; and Martin Castellanos, head of Latam research at the IIF. They discuss the potential economic and policy implications of the June 2nd presidential elections and describe the optimism vis-a-vis Mexico among the investor community. They dive into the economic realities that exist today to determine whether that optimism is justified or not. They also discuss future risks and analyze the various policy consequences of the upcoming elections. They describe two potential scenarios: a victory by Claudia Sheinbaum with and without the necessary majority in Congress to change the Constitution. They also discuss the tailwinds that the nearshoring wave could bring for Mexico, and the country's shortcomings that limit it from taking full advantage of the opportunity. And finally, the implications for Mexico if it allowed China to use it as a back door to the United States.

More from Mexico Matters

Oct 1, 2026

In this episode, Mariana Campero speaks with Valeria Moy, Director of IMCO and host of the Peras y Manzanas podcast. They kick off with a demographic shockwave: Mexico’s Statistics Institute, INEGI, released an intercensal figures which revealed that Mexico’s fertility rate plummeted to 1.2, with Mexico City dropping to an astonishing 0.8—lower than Tokyo. What does the rapid shattering of the "endless young labor supply" mean for the nation's pension system, long-term productivity, and labor market?

Aug 4, 2026

In this episode, Mariana Campero sits down with Guillermo García Alcocer, former chairman of Mexico’s Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) and one of the region’s premier energy policy experts. Together, they break down Mexico’s dramatic shift from a dominant energy exporter to a country relying on the U.S. for over 70% of its refined fuels and natural gas. They explore the strategic trade-offs and vulnerabilities of this dependence on cheap American gas, as well as the pragmatic policy shifts being implemented to power Mexico's booming manufacturing sector and data centers.

Jun 11, 2026

In this episode, Mariana sits down with Andres Martinez, journalist, Co-Director of the Great Game Lab at Arizona State University, and author of the gripping new book, The Great Game: A Tale of Two Footballs and America’s Quest to Conquer Global Sport.

May 8, 2026

In this episode, Mariana speaks with counter-terrorism and Middle East expert Dan Byman to dissect the current state of the US-Iran conflict and its potential impact on the upcoming North American World Cup 2026. They analyze Iran’s increased deterrence positioning with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, their use of asymmetric warfare, and lay potentials scenarios to explain Iran’s current terrorism restraint. Is it a sign of incapacity or strategic pause? They also discuss the importance for the Iran’s soccer players to participate in the sporting tournament,ent and the risks it implies from a security and diplomatic perspective. They discuss why Mexico can be a security “soft spot” as the country maintains diplomatic ties with Teheran, and the bigger challenges posed by a lone person attack.

Apr 9, 2026

In this episode, Mariana speaks with Adolfo Babatz, Founder and CEO of Clip, the company that transformed the Mexican streetscape by not only putting a payment terminal into the hands of micro-merchants but also by offering them financial services to help them become more efficient to survive.

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