Show Notes
Will El-Sayed beat Stevens in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary? New Emerson polling has Abdul El-Sayed up 15 over Haley Stevens, and Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement may have made things worse...
In this episode, we cover: Did Whitmer's endorsement backfire on Haley Stevens? – Fresh Emerson polling shows Abdul El-Sayed leading the Michigan Senate primary by 15 points, with a separate poll putting him up 11. We break down why Governor Whitmer's endorsement of Stevens right before Monday's debate seems to have cost her approval rating 16 points, and whether El-Sayed can hold the middle against Mike Rogers in a general election. Could Ohio Split the Ticket? – Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton are running dead even for governor, and John Husted is trying to defend a Senate seat with little name recognition against Sherrod Brown. We dig into why polls and prediction markets align, and why Ohio may be more like Michigan than some want to admit. Who do voters actually consider "elite"? – A new poll from The Argument / Verasight asked Americans to define the elite, and the answer wasn't professors or journalists. We discuss what the results mean for how both parties talk about class, and why Democrats may be stuck choosing between a primary they can win and a general they can't. 📊 Emerson College Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/EmersonPolling/status/2... 📊 Tavern Research Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/... 📊 NY Times/Siena Poll, Ohio Governor Race: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2... 🎲 Ohio Governor Race, Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartyoh... 🎲 Ohio Senate Race, Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/senateohs/... 📊 The Argument / Verasight Poll, "Who Are the Elites?": https://substack.com/@theargument/p-2... The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels, alongside Poll Director Mark Cunningham. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com
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Could the midterms make or break potential 2028 presidential aspirations for these candidates? We analyze how Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, AOC, Spencer Pratt, Brian Kemp, and Ron DeSantis might fare in 2028 depending on how key midterm races play out. We also make the case for not having a blue wave on election night, with less than two weeks left and Senate control still in play. In this episode, we cover: Is Jon Ossoff the Democrats' best-positioned 2028 contender? - Ossoff leads Mike Collins in every recent Georgia Senate poll. His margin is what will matter at the end of this campaign as a single-digit win over Collins is far less appealing. A Keisha Lance Bottoms loss to Rick Jackson could also impact the image of his political prowess. Did AOC make a risky bet on Abdul El-Sayed? - AOC has tied her image to El-Sayed's Michigan Senate race against Mike Rogers. Mark explains why a loss would feed the argument from moderates within the party that the far left can't win general elections. Should anyone take Spencer Pratt seriously in 2028? - After his LA mayoral run, Mark ranks Pratt high on the list for the Republican nomination and warns Democrats not to repeat their mistake of underestimating Trump as a political outsider. What if there's no blue wave? - Mark puts his prediction of the final generic ballot near D+6 or D+7, notes Republicans hold about a 35% chance in the Senate betting markets, and explains how a two to three point polling error in Maine, Texas and Iowa could keep the Senate red. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 00:42 - Is Ossoff the Democrats' best 2028 bet? 02:09 - Can Shapiro maintain his margins in Pennsylvania? 04:07 - AOC's big bet on El-Sayed 11:35 - Is Spencer Pratt a real 2028 contender? 14:11 - Brian Kemp's prospects with a moderate Republican image 16:55 - DeSantis has a strong resume, but can he recover from 2024? 18:43 - What if there's no blue wave? 20:41 - Can Republicans still hold the Senate? 22:39 - Maine, Texas and Iowa inside the margin of error The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com
More midterm mania! The national environment is hurting Republicans in red states while unpopular Democratic incumbents get squeezed in blue ones, so candidate quality is playing a big role in determining the margins. Underneath it all, Trump's approval continues to collapse, specifically with young voters. "It's the economy, stupid!" In this episode, we cover: Is Kansas really a toss-up? - Crystal Ball and Split Ticket moved the Kansas Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Mark breaks down why Democrat Adam Hamilton is one of the strongest candidates of the cycle, why incumbent Roger Marshall is struggling, and cites NYT/Siena's poll showing Marshall +1 . Can Republican Michelle Tafoya pull an upset in Minnesota? - Fox News and Crystal Ball shifted Minnesota from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, favoring Tafoya. Mark explains why a three-point polling error could put Tafoya within reach of Peggy Flanagan, and debates whether her pro-choice Republican ad helps or costs her the base. Is Talarico still the favorite in Texas? - New polls from the Texas Politics Project/UT/YouGov (Talarico +3), Marist (Talarico +2), Siena (Talarico +4), and Quantus Insights (Paxton +0.5). Mark explains how pollsters model a state with no party registration, why the leaked Paxton audio isn't much of an October Surprise, and why Greg Abbott finds himself in tight race with Gina Hinojosa. Is Kathy Hochul in trouble in New York? - Polls range from Hochul +3 to +22. What's going on there? Why young voters turned on Trump - Trump hit an all-time net approval low of -23.9, and The Argument's polling has him at 50 points underwater with likely voters between 18-29. Olivia points out changing tides among young voter dynamics. Mark agrees this is about the economy, and that Democrats shouldn't read it as a policy mandate. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 00:55 - Kansas Senate moves to toss-up: "an absolute coin toss" 04:07 - Minnesota shifts from Likely Dem to Lean Dem: is Michelle Tafoya a real threat? 09:21 - Four new Texas Senate polls 14:05 - How pollsters model Texas 20:38 - Texas in a Harris midterm? Hypothetical question 21:34 - New York governor: is Hochul underestimated? 27:50 - Why the Trump attack line flops in blue states 29:07 - Trump's approval hits a new low with young voters 34:54 - When the economy's bad, social issues take a back seat POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Texas Politics Project / UT / YouGov, Texas Senate and Governor: https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/latest-poll 📊 Marist, Texas Senate: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-october-2026/ 📊 Siena, Texas Senate: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2109957019377783056?s=20 📊 Quantus Insights, Texas Senate: https://quantusinsights.org/f/texas-senate-paxton-and-talarico-in-a-near-tie 📊 G. Elliott Morris, 50+1 Texas Senate polling average: https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/texas 📊 Pollfinity, New York Governor: https://pollfinity.com/polls/ny-governor-2026-oct 📊 Beacon Research, New York Governor: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2026/10/15/mamdanis-mia-from-gop-attack-ads-01119739 📊 The Argument / Verasight, Trump approval among young voters: https://substack.com/home/post/p-219494803 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com
The Overton Insights team is joined by Florida Politics reporter AG Gancarski to discuss the midterms in Florida and new national polling trends. Both Mark and AG expect Republicans to hold Florida this November, but they split on the margins. In this episode, we cover: Is Byron Donalds' lead as safe as it looks? - Mason-Dixon has Donalds up 7 over David Jolly and YouGov has him up 2. AG and Mark dig into why Donalds skipped the primary debates, Jay Collins' influence, James Fishback's refusal to endorse, and the end of the DeSantis era. How close can Angie Nixon get to Ashley Moody? - Moody leads the special election for Marco Rubio's old Senate seat. Mark argues that if Nixon keeps it within five, Jolly could win the governor's race. What does Gallup's D+11 Party ID poll mean for the midterms? - Gallup's Q3 party ID is the best number for Democrats since 2009. Mark expects the final environment closer to D+8, and AG says he isn't seeing a shy Republican effect in Florida polling. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 04:31 - Did skipping debates cost Byron Donalds? 07:10 - Why James Fishback is staying on the sidelines 10:42 - Donalds' polling lead and Jolly's money problem 13:55 - Florida Senate Race: Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon 20:13 - Is Florida a red state or a purple one? 24:41 - Gallup's D+11 and the blue wave debate 29:41 - Can Republicans separate from Trump? 31:24 - Florida predictions: governor and Senate 33:01 - Florida's sleeper race for CFO POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Mason-Dixon Florida poll: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28724874/fl1026results.pdf 📊 YouGov Florida poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_fl_20260921_lv.pdf 📊 Gallup Q3 party identification: https://news.gallup.com/poll/654560/quarterly-party-affiliation.aspx The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. This episode features special guest AG Gancarski, who has covered statewide elections for Florida Politics since 2014. His work has also appeared in the Washington Post, New York Post, Washington Times, and National Review. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com
Less than five weeks until the election, Mark Cunningham calls these key governor races. Plus: new drama unfolds in Texas, and a new polls in Georgia and Ohio shed light on shifting dynamics. In this episode, we cover: Can Republicans hold governor's mansions in a blue wave year? - Mark's first gubernatorial predictions: Rick Jackson by 1.8 over Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, Vivek Ramaswamy by 1 over Amy Acton in Ohio, Jocelyn Benson by 8 in Michigan, Rob Sand by 3 in Iowa, Tina Kotek by 2.6 over Christine Drazan in Oregon, and David Crowley by 4 over Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin. Mark expects split tickets in Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa. Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing Georgia? - A YouGov poll of about 3,300 likely voters shows a 10-point gap between Jon Ossoff's Senate number and Lance Bottoms' governor number. Mark explains why that moves the governor's race from lean D to a toss-up. Why is the blue wave stronger in red states? - Olivia brings in Nate Silver's read on where the wave is landing. Mark argues voters are punishing whoever holds power: Trump in red states, Democratic incumbents in places like Oregon and Maine. Will Ohio prove the polls wrong? - Mark runs down the latest polls of Ohio, and explains why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't translating in the polls while Sen. Jon Husted's low profile could be hurting him. Is Trump dragging down Ken Paxton? - Paxton seemingly blames Trump and the RNC midterm convention for his campaign's troubles. Mark reacts and explains why he doesn't trust the Pulse Decision Science internal poll showing Paxton ahead. How unpopular is the Iran war? - The Argument's national poll puts the war in Iran near Vietnam among the least popular U.S. wars of the last century, and finds Trump's approval falling as gas prices rise. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 00:35 - Headlines: two Michigan polls, a Paxton internal, and Cook shifts in Florida and Texas 01:49 - Mark flips his read of the Georgia governor's race to Rick Jackson 02:21 - Governor calls for Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa 04:16 - Oregon: the governor's race where Republicans could pull an upset 05:35 - Wisconsin after the Marquette poll 06:17 - Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing her lead? 08:46 - Why the blue wave seems strongest in red states 10:20 - Ohio may be the test of whether the polls are wrong 13:17 - Why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't helping him 16:29 - Paxton's leaked audio and new internal polling 20:12 - The Argument: Iran war, gas prices, and Trump's approval POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Michigan Senate poll (Cygnal/Beacon): https://enjoyer.com/michigan-poll-fall-2026/ 📊 Fox News Michigan Senate poll: https://www.foxnews.com/fox-news-poll-methodology-statement 📊 Pulse Decision Science Texas Senate poll (Paxton internal): https://x.com/PatrickSvitek/status/2105048317780771129?s=20 📊 Co/efficient Maine Senate poll: https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/me/ 📊 YouGov Georgia poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ga_20260915.pdf 📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2105347162850607610?s=20 📊 Big Data Poll Ohio Senate poll: https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/buckeye-state-poll-sherrod-brown-leads-jon-husted-for-us-senate-in-ohio/ 📊 Marist Poll Ohio: https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2104786340403675323?s=20 📰 The Argument polling article on wars and gas prices: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-least-popular-war-since-vietnam The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com
Six weeks out from the elections, we lay out our first Senate forecasts and review the week's biggest poll drops. In this episode, we cover: Who wins the Senate six weeks out? Mark makes his calls in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Is Michigan slipping away from Mike Rogers? NYT/Siena has Abdul El-Sayed up 49% to 44%, and Suffolk has El-Sayed +7 points, his biggest lead since Labor Day. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to Lean D, while Cook still rates it a toss-up. We break down rising gas and diesel prices, Trump's approval drag, and whether Dana Nessel's endorsement signals Democrats are finally uniting behind El-Sayed. How can two good pollsters be 13 points apart in Iowa? We analyze registered vs. likely voter samples and why a split-ticket could happen. Is there any chance for Ken Paxton in Texas? Talarico comes in leading all new polls in Texas again this week. We compare both to our own Overton Insights Texas poll and look at the NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll. We also ask whether quiet Republican voters could shrink the blue wave. Could Nithya Raman win LA by double digits? A new poll shows Raman ahead of Mayor Karen Bass, and she now leads on Kalshi 57% to 42%. Mark predicts a double-digit point win, with a potential Spencer Pratt endorsement of Bass. SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up: NYT/Siena drops in Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire 00:45 - We predict these key senate races 04:32 - Michigan polls this week 06:51 - Gas, diesel, and the Trump problem 09:58 - Is the Democratic coalition finally uniting behind El-Sayed? 11:37 - Susan Collins leads in NYT/Siena poll of Maine 14:23 - Iowa's 13-point polling gap: Marist vs. Emerson 17:01 - More Texas polls show Talarico ahead 21:20 - New Hampshire still looks competitive 23:55 - Are quiet Republicans hiding in the polls? 25:01 - LA mayor: Nithya Raman surges past Karen Bass 26:45 - Would Spencer Pratt really endorse Karen Bass? POLLS & LINKS: 📊 NYT/Siena Michigan Senate poll (9/15–9/22), El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/michigan-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html 📊 Suffolk Michigan Senate poll (9/16–9/20), El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40: https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/9_22_2026_michigan_statewide_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=3846F455203B08DE085D08400622793E4DB74FB2 📊 Emerson Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-el-sayed-and-rogers-locked-in-close-election/ 📊 Washington Post Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3: https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/08fa9b5e-43ac-456c-a706-4c33ec6506dc.pdf 📊 InsiderAdvantage Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +2: https://insideradvantage.com/mi-top-line-tabs/ 🎙 Nate Silver on gas and diesel prices: https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2102491410029019311 📊 NYT/Siena Maine poll: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/maine-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html 📊 Marist Iowa poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2102249505387151488 📊 Emerson Iowa poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/ 📊 NPR/Marist Texas poll: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf 📊 Emerson Texas poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/ 📊 Overton Insights Texas poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ 📊 NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll,: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/new-hampshire-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html 📊 Los Angeles mayoral runoff poll: https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2102736228298674447 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers be