TIP855: Shopify (SHOP): The Big Winner of Agentic Commerce? w/ Shawn O'Malley & Daniel Mahncke
The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast NetworkShow Notes
Shawn O’Malley and Daniel Mahncke revisit Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) fifteen months after Shawn pitched it, called it one of the best businesses they’d ever studied, and recommended passing on the stock at around $80 per share. Since then, the stock has nearly doubled, gross merchandise volume has grown more than 30% for five straight quarters, 2025 revenue rose 30% to over $11.5 billion, and Shopify paid off its convertible notes and launched its first-ever buyback program, now totaling $5 billion.
Shawn and Daniel grade their original analysis: what they got right about the business, what they got wrong about the numbers, and whether the decision-making process itself was flawed. They dig into how Shopify became central to agentic commerce through its Catalog of over a billion products, the Universal Commerce Protocol it co-developed with Google, and agentic storefronts inside ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot. They also cover Amazon blocking Meta’s Muse agent while Shopify partnered with it, the bear case that merchants will vibe-code their own stores, Sidekick’s rapid adoption, and whether a great business is worth owning at 112 times operating profits.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
(00:00:00) Intro
(00:08:42) What Shawn and Daniel got right and wrong when they passed on Shopify in 2025
(00:09:02) How to grade an investment decision without falling for hindsight bias
(00:16:07) How Shopify sustained more than 30% GMV growth for five straight quarters
(00:17:12) Why Shopify merchants captured nearly half of all new U.S. e-commerce dollars
(00:23:28) Valuation discussion of Shopify
(00:32:30) What agentic commerce is and how Shopify’s Catalog and Universal Commerce Protocol power it
(00:49:22) Why AI shopping may favor independent brands over Amazon and Etsy
(01:03:14) Why merchants are unlikely to vibe-code their way off Shopify
(01:08:53) What Ben Graham’s P/E matrix says Shopify is worth today
(01:11:56) Whether Shawn and Daniel will add Shopify to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Apply for The Intrinsic Value Mastermind Community where investors learn, share ideas, network, and join calls with experts.
Apply for The Mastermind Inner Circle to connect with the most successful investors, executives, and business leaders from our audience.
Track The Intrinsic Value Portfolio.
Portfolio Review Submit Tool.
Our original podcast deep-dive on Shopify.
Shopify’s Q2 2026 results.
Shopify’s Spring ’26 Edition: Selling everything, everywhere, all at once.
Tobi Lütke on Uncapped with Jack Altman (#50).
Ben Thompson’s Stratechery interview with Michael Morton on e-commerce in the age of AI.
Shopify’s Tinker announcement and “Commerce at the speed of culture” data study.
Shopify at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference (September 2026).
The Graham-Dodd P/E Matrix.
Our updated Shopify valuation model.
Check out our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns Shopify, Uber, Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, Madison Square Garden Sports.
Related books mentioned in the podcast.
Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
Get smarter about valuing businesses through The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
Check out The Investor’s Podcast Starter Packs.
Follow our official social media accounts:
More from The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley follow up last year’s TransDigm pitch with the biggest monopoly in aviation: GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE), the engine maker behind nearly three out of every four commercial flights in the world. With roughly 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines in service, GE has the largest installed engine base worldwide. That’s the reason Chris Hohn bets about 30% of his $50+ billion portfolio on it.
In this episode, William Green speaks with Matt Ludmer, the founder & CEO of Aligned Wealth Management. Matt is a financial adviser to wealthy individuals & families, including clients who have entrusted him with tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. After decades working on Wall Street, he came to realize he’d misunderstood the meaning of wealth. That revelation led him to write a new book, “The Right Mountain: Practical Wisdom for Achieving True Wealth.” Here, he explores how to build a fulfilling life that includes—& transcends—financial success.
In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss Aritzia, the everyday luxury fashion brand that has become one of retail's most impressive compounders. They explore how a small boutique in the corner of a department store grew into a brand with exceptional store-based economics, a spotless balance sheet, and a huge untapped opportunity across America. With the stock falling even as the business posts some of its best growth ever, they debate whether this is a rare chance to own a durable compounder or a hot brand nearing its peak.
In this episode, William Green speaks with multibillionaire Sir Michael Moritz, arguably the most successful venture capitalist ever. He spent nearly four decades at Sequoia Capital, which invested in early-stage companies like Nvidia, Google, YouTube, PayPal, Airbnb, LinkedIn & Stripe. Here, he talks about his unconventional path to success, the role of temperament in investing, & what he learned from observing Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Jensen Huang & Elon Musk.
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley revisit the two luxury houses they passed on last time — Hermès (EPA: RMS), the 189-year-old maker of the Birkin bag, and LVMH (EPA: MC), the 75-brand conglomerate behind Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, and Hennessy. Both stocks now sit near their lows: Hermès is down more than 50% from its February 2025 peak and trades at 32 times earnings for the first time in a decade, while LVMH has fallen to a five-year low after two straight years of declining sales — something that didn’t even happen in 2009. The luxury industry has lost roughly 70 million customers since 2022, the Chinese market that tripled between 2017 and 2021 has been shrinking ever since, and a war in the Gulf emptied the stores on the Champs-Élysées of their best-spending tourists.