This Is Why

Why Burnham’s housebuilding boom is doomed

This Is Why

Summary

In a bid to address the affordable housing crisis in the UK, Andy Burnham has announced ambitious plans to lead the largest council house building program since World War II. The Labour mayor highlighted the urgent need for increased housing supply, pledging to construct 500,000 bespoke social rent homes by 2030. Burnham's remarks come amid critical housing shortages, with recent figures showing the current government is on track to miss its target of delivering 1.5 million homes by over a third, with projections indicating only about 837,000 homes will be completed by the deadline.

Burnham's strategy seeks to reform the notion of affordable rent, criticizing the existing framework where properties can be rented at 80% of local market rates, which remains unattainable for many. He argues that the government must invest £40 billion to realize his housing initiative. However, experts express skepticism about the feasibility of these commitments, citing issues like spiraling labor and material costs, strict planning regulations, and a diminishing workforce in the construction sector.

The construction industry is grappling with increased expenses, a dwindling number of builders due to factors including Brexit, and a plummet in investor interest owing to protracted planning delays. The call for a revival of the Help to Buy scheme and tax breaks on building materials has been made by developers, yet these suggestions face challenges from the Treasury, which relies heavily on tax revenue generated from the construction sector.

Burnham’s proposals also include significant tax reforms, aiming to replace stamp duty and council tax with a new proportional property tax. While this might alleviate upfront costs for homebuyers, especially first-time buyers, it risks penalizing homeowners in high-value areas. The intricacies of implementing such changes could face opposition and complicate its potential success.

As Burnham sets these high expectations, there is widespread acknowledgment of the slow-moving nature of change within the housing market. Critics point to a pattern of unfulfilled housing pledges by successive governments, reflecting deep-rooted structural challenges. With these aspirations now on the table, Burnham faces the daunting task of turning them into reality while balancing political pressures and economic constraints.

Show Notes

Every prime minister promises ambitious plans to build new homes – every prime minister in more than half a century has failed. Andy Burnham says he’ll be different. The former Manchester mayor is on the verge of becoming the new tenant in Number 10 and wants to oversee the biggest council house construction programme since the post-war boom. But you have to go back to 1970 for the last time any government fulfilled its housebuilding target. So why is Mr Burnham so sure he can succeed where his predecessors have failed? Mhari Aurora speaks to David Byers, deputy property editor at The Times and Sunday Times. Have you got a question for the podcast? Email us: [email protected]

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