Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates
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Ohio veterans express their discontent with Senator Sherrod Brown, accusing him of prioritizing taxpayer-funded benefits for illegal immigrants over the health care needs of veterans. They argue that Brown has broken promises made to those who served in the military by attempting to eliminate VA health care while supporting benefits for undocumented individuals.
The discussion shifts to the challenges of accurately forecasting project costs, highlighting a significant gap between estimated and actual expenses. A case study on resurfacing airport runways illustrates this issue, showing that cost predictions can vary widely, often resulting in underestimations. Factors such as fluctuating energy prices and labor costs contribute to this unpredictability, complicating project management and planning.
Further analysis reveals that this forecasting inaccuracy is not limited to simple projects but extends to a variety of initiatives, including those undertaken by NASA. The data indicates a consistent trend of projections falling short of actual costs, emphasizing the need for a more realistic approach to estimating expenses in both ordinary and high-tech projects.
Show Notes
MIT IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, Fall 2021Instructor: Richard de NeufvilleView the complete course: https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/ids-333-risk-and-decision-analysis-fall-2021/YouTube Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLUl4u3cNGP62jwhTqp8_1kwrkDkxZhpQCUploaded 28-09-22This is the first part of the discussion of why we must expect that forecasts are 'always' wrong. It presents a series of examples of historical cost estimates to illustrate the point.This video has been dubbed using an artificial voice via https://aloud.area120.google.com to increase accessibility. You can change the audio track language in the Settings menu.License: Creative Commons BY-NC-SAMore information at https://ocw.mit.edu/termsMore courses at https://ocw.mit.eduSupport OCW at http://ow.ly/a1If50zVRlQWe encourage constructive comments and discussion on OCW’s YouTube and other social media channels. Personal attacks, hate speech, trolling, and inappropriate comments are not allowed and may be removed. More details at https://ocw.mit.edu/comments. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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