Dr. John Campbell

Delta Plus, cause for concern?

Dr. John Campbell

Summary

Ohio veterans express their concerns regarding Senator Sherrod Brown's policies, particularly criticizing his support for taxpayer-funded benefits for illegal immigrants while allegedly neglecting veterans' health care, including VA services. They argue that their sacrifices for the country should take precedence over benefits for non-citizens, emphasizing a sense of betrayal by Brown.

In a separate discussion, experts analyze the emergence of a new subvariant of the Delta variant, designated AY4.2, which is showing an increasing prevalence in the UK and has been identified in the United States. Current data suggests that this subvariant may be slightly more transmissible than its predecessors, but it is not classified as a variant of concern at this time. Experts advise caution but indicate that existing vaccines are likely to remain effective against this new variant. The overall message is one of vigilance without panic, as the situation continues to evolve.

Show Notes

New descendant of the Delta variant, Delta, predominant, 99.8% of sequenced cases in EnglandAs of 11 October 2021Uploaded 20-10-21Delta, predominant variant, 99.8% of sequenced cases in England Delta sublineage newly designated as AY.4.2There are also small numbers of new cases of Delta with E484K and Delta with E484Q https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefingshttps://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025827/Technical_Briefing_25.pdfhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/fears-grow-in-england-over-rise-of-new-covid-delta-varianthttps://www.thesun.co.uk/health/16463658/new-delta-subvariant-uk-more-infectious/https://www.italy24news.com/News/164491.htmlhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/delta-ay-sub-variant-which-requires-urgent-research-found-in-these-us-states/ar-AAPFk3Shttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58965650UK genetic sequencing, 6%, now 8% or moreUK, over a million sequences performed so farOn an increasing trajectoryUS, Denmark, CanadaUS, 3 cases sequenced, no clusters reportedNorth Carolina, California, DC10 cases in Israel, all from USUK, 14,247 sequenced as of Monday, October 18th AY.4.2, Delta Plus, Spike protein change(AY means it is a delta subtype)(AY.4 is already 80% in the UK)Mutations - Y145H and A222VFound in various lineages since the beginning of the pandemicWill this give the virus additional powers?Vaccine escape?Slight effect on the binding between antibodies and the virusNot yet a variant of concern or variant under investigation WHO, next few days, nu variantOriginal Delta, classified as VOC, UK May 2021 July 2021 experts identified AY.4.2.Sublineage of Delta, increasing slowly since thenProf Francois Balloux, University College London, Genetics InstituteIt is potentially a marginally more infectious strain.It's nothing compared with what we saw with Alpha and Delta, which were something like 50 to 60 percent more transmissible. So we are talking about something quite subtle here and that is currently under investigation. At this stage I would say wait and see, don't panic. it is not something absolutely disastrous like we saw previouslyDr Jeffrey Barrett, Covid-19 Genomics Initiative, Wellcome Sanger Institute, Cambridge, and Prof Francois BallouxAY.4.2 could be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant.Unlikely to be fuelling current UK increases(That’s mostly school age and to their parents) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Open access using this link:Uploaded 13-12-23https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.14136Effectiveness of a fourth SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose in previously infected individuals from AustriaEvidence is limited on the effectiveness of a fourth vaccine dose against coronavirus disease 2019,in populations with prior SARS-CoV-2 infections. We estimated the risk of COVID-19 deaths (primary outcome)We estimated the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections (secondary outcome)MethodsAustria nationwide retrospective observational study. 1 November to 31 December 2022Primarily comparing individuals with four versus three vaccine doses. Whole population data.Results3,986,312 previously infected individuals281,291 (7,1%) had four vaccinations at baseline1,545,242 (38.8%) had three vaccinations at baseline We recorded69 COVID-19 deaths89,056 SARS-CoV-2 infectionsThe majority of COVID-19 deaths and a significant proportion of all-cause deaths occurred in nursing home residentsRelative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) for four versus three vaccine doses-24% against COVID-19 deaths17% against SARS-CoV-2 infections. Protection against infection rapidly diminished over time,and infection risk with four vaccinations was higher during extended follow-up until June 2023. Adjusted HR for all-cause mortality for four versus three vaccinations was 0.79.That is people with a 4th dose were only 79% as likely to die(Suggesting healthy vaccinee bias, i.e. healthier persons received more vaccine doses)DiscussionIn previously infected individuals, a fourth vaccination did not reduce COVID-19 death risk, but with transiently reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections,and reversal of this effect in longer follow-up. All-cause mortality data suggest healthy vaccinee bias.More detailsMostly Pfizer vaccine, some ModernaIn this study, overall case fatality rate, 0.08%.(IFR, ? 0.008% if 10% of infections picked up)Individuals with repeated previous infections had reduced re-infection riskNatural immunity may be a main determinant of immunological protection in a populationBy end 2022, the vast majority of the global population had already acquired some immune protectionCompared to three vaccine doses, those with fewer or no vaccinations did not differ with regard to COVID-19 mortality,but had reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections.In 2022, infection fatality rates due to SARS-CoV-2 significantly declined suggesting transitioning into endemicity.In general, our study results question whether recommendations for repeated vaccine boosters against SARS-CoV-2 are currently justified for large parts of the general population with a history of previous infections. Measures against SARS-CoV-2 including vaccine policy should be critically re-assessed for their risk-to-benefit ratio.As most SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic or mild in an endemic phase, effectiveness of vaccinations should be primarily evaluated according to hard clinical outcomes (e.g. COVID-19 deaths)Extended follow-upFrom 1 January to 30 June 2023Omicron XBB.1.5. was the predominant variant225 COVID-19 deaths174,174 SARS-CoV-2 infections. Analyses in 2023 confirm no relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) for four versus three vaccine doses for COVID-19 mortality,but show higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections with a rVE of −17%Free download John’s textbooks in high res pdf.https://drjohncampbell.co.ukCheck out Campbell's Physiology Notes Dr John Campbell Sold by author on eBay!https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/155780745424?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=K6raxMZrQnm&sssrc=4429486&ssuid=K6raxMZrQnm&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=EMAIL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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