Doomberg: ‘Mad Max Style’ Great Reset, $150 Oil & ‘On The Tipping Point’ in Middle East
Palisades Gold RadioShow Notes
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Doomberg to the show. Doomberg is Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack. Doomberg analyzes the escalating geopolitical risks following the significant damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, a critical artery for crude oil exports. He argues that while the initial closure of the Strait of Hormuz did not cause the expected price shock, the pipeline attack pushes an already stressed system into a red zone, with Brent crude nearing demand destruction levels. The core risk, however, extends beyond oil flows. Doomberg describes Arab Gulf states as metastable constructs propped up by the illusion of U.S. military hegemony. The rapid territorial gains by the Houthis in Yemen represent a potential catalyst for a sudden collapse of this perceived stability, where the common knowledge that a regime is weak can trigger rapid, systemic change. He suggests the possibility of a Saudi leadership crisis, such as MBS fleeing, is a low-probability but enormously consequential event that markets may be underpricing. The discussion shifts to the war in Ukraine, where Doomberg predicts a devastating Russian strike on energy infrastructure, citing public Russian military orders and U.S. intelligence warnings. He notes that attacks on refineries paradoxically cap crude oil prices while causing diesel crack spreads to explode, as refineries are the sole customers for crude. This dynamic, combined with refineries running at dangerous capacity, creates acute tightness in refined products. Doomberg emphasizes that in conflicts, victory often belongs to the side with higher pain tolerance, and he assesses that Iran and the Houthis can endure far more hardship than Western consumers. He warns that the convergence of these crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside reckless rhetoric from NATO-aligned nations, creates a genuine risk of uncontrollable global escalation.
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Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, joins Palisades Gold Radio to dissect the current energy crisis. He argues that while the market has avoided outright shortages in the West, the war has created a “balkanized” global oil market. The primary issue is not just crude supply, but a severe crisis in refining capacity, particularly for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel. Diesel crack spreads have hit unprecedented levels (near $100-$120 a barrel), driven by a combination of the Iran war, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure. This has led to a million to 1.5 million barrels per day loss in diesel supply, with emerging markets like Indonesia feeling the pain of outright shortages first.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob Moriarty is Author, Founder 321 Gold, & Former Marine Fighter Pilot. The discussion centers on escalating Middle East conflicts, particularly the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and the broader geopolitical brinkmanship involving Iran, Israel, and the United States.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader and is the Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. The discussion opens with a vivid illustration of emerging fuel shortages, as Trader Ferg shares images of long queues at his local petrol station in Bali, a symptom of diesel and product tightness spreading across Asia. He argues that governments avoid admitting scarcity, instead running down strategic reserves, but this dynamic sets the stage for a prolonged “big refill” cycle that will keep crude and refined products tight for years. He cautions that markets are complacently expecting a quick resolution, while the reality points to sustained supply constraints.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Jeff Phillips to the show. Jeff Phillips is a Private Investor and President of Global Market Development. Jeff Phillips sees the current pullback in precious metals and junior miners as a buying opportunity within a longer-term commodity super cycle driven by underinvestment, supply chain concerns, and inflationary currency debasement. He cautions that short-term timing remains uncertain, so maintaining cash and avoiding overleverage is essential. Phillips focuses on junior exploration and development companies, typically entering at $5 to $40 million market caps, and stresses that management quality and share structure matter more than geology alone. He looks for experienced teams with significant insider ownership and long-term shareholders rather than warrant flippers.
Stijn Schmitz welcomes David Hunter to the show. David Hunter is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. Hunter presents a deeply contrarian outlook, arguing that the extreme bearishness in the bond market signals a major bottom in bonds and a top in interest rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury. He believes the current narrative of an inescapable fiscal trap and higher rates is already priced in, and he expects oil prices to roll over into the $60 range, contributing to a downside surprise in inflation as the economy slows.