Show Notes
AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain.
Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural.
We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
03:21 AI’s Macro Impact
06:48 Historical Tech Bubbles
10:25 AI Capex Drives Growth
14:13 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
15:23 How Big Can The Bubble Get?
20:14 Agentic AI Compute Demand
24:10 AI Is Too Cheap
28:15 Productivity Mirage
33:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)
34:24 Fed Policy And AI
41:02 Can AI Fix Debt?
47:34 Physical World Bottlenecks
49:47 The Future Of Economics
FOLLOW STEVE HOU
› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou
FOLLOW THE SHOW
› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance
› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc
› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks
SPONSORS
› FIDELITY CRYPTO
This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto
Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.
Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.
https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading
DISCLAIMER
Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
More from Forward Guidance
Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained?
Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work?
Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown?
Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades?
Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy?