Burnham brings back Brexit wars: what’s the strategy?

Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, a close ally of Andy Burnham, has sounded the alarm over the upcoming budget, warning the Prime Minister can’t “vibe-code his way to growth”. Patrick joins John Healey on the road, getting a glimpse of the Chancellor’s pro-business pitch — and the bottle of HP Sauce he keeps in his briefcase. Ben takes us inside the budget, unpacking four key areas: help with business costs, support for households facing rising energy bills, a fuel duty freeze and a package to tackle youth unemployment. Can Healey’s budget deliver meaningful change, or is the big stuff still being kicked down the road? Ben reflects on his time with Andy Burnham, exploring the mayor’s ambitions, political instincts and frustration with Westminster — and what his first 100 days reveal about his wider national project.

Andy Burnham's welfare reforms are likely to start with more, not less, spending. In his review into Neets, young people not in education, employment or training, Alan Milburn will propose restricting access to universal credit for 16 to 24-year-olds, and spending money instead on employment support. The prime minister will tell MPs the government needs to spend first, cut later to bring about meaningful welfare reform. That may please Labour MPs but will the bond markets keep the faith? Meanwhile, the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is facing opposition within Labour over plans to double the wait for indefinite leave to remain from five to 10 years. Will Burnham back her reforms, or carve out an exception for migrant care workers?

In this live recording of The State of It, Patrick and Steve assess the state of play ahead of budget day. John Healey is preparing a steady-as-she-goes budget, but with the big decisions on welfare, defence and tax rises pushed into next year, is Labour ducking the difficult choices? Meanwhile, AI evangelists want Britain to seize the opportunities, while Ed Miliband is pushing back on environmental grounds. Cue an almighty cabinet row. Reform UK’s poll lead has narrowed as Restore eats into its support. But is Westminster writing off Nigel Farage too soon? Reform remains the most trusted party on immigration and is sharpening its economic pitch to working-class voters. Finally, Andy Burnham faces one of Labour’s biggest challenges: reforming the welfare system.

Zack Polanski's defeat in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election puts him in a tough position. The Green leader lost the by-election by 3,300 votes to Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Labour candidate. He's also facing criticism after the Green Party voted to declare that Zionism is racism. Polanski did not vote and has been accused of failing to show leadership. How tenable is his position now?

Kemi Badenoch's attack on Reform UK was all about character and her attack on Labour was all about economics. In her speech at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, she said she would to scrap inheritance tax on family homes and that under a Conservative government, couples would be able to leave an extra £1m inheritance tax free to their children. Badenoch was withering about Nigel Farage and Reform UK, saying: "The circus goes on and on and it will never stop because this is who Reform are — so to those who say ‘unite the right’, we are not uniting with that.” We look at the Conservatives' electoral strategy, their prospects — especially compared with a year ago — and the vibes among their MPs.