Zack Polanski on the brink

Andy Burnham's welfare reforms are likely to start with more, not less, spending. In his review into Neets, young people not in education, employment or training, Alan Milburn will propose restricting access to universal credit for 16 to 24-year-olds, and spending money instead on employment support. The prime minister will tell MPs the government needs to spend first, cut later to bring about meaningful welfare reform. That may please Labour MPs but will the bond markets keep the faith? Meanwhile, the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is facing opposition within Labour over plans to double the wait for indefinite leave to remain from five to 10 years. Will Burnham back her reforms, or carve out an exception for migrant care workers?

In this live recording of The State of It, Patrick and Steve assess the state of play ahead of budget day. John Healey is preparing a steady-as-she-goes budget, but with the big decisions on welfare, defence and tax rises pushed into next year, is Labour ducking the difficult choices? Meanwhile, AI evangelists want Britain to seize the opportunities, while Ed Miliband is pushing back on environmental grounds. Cue an almighty cabinet row. Reform UK’s poll lead has narrowed as Restore eats into its support. But is Westminster writing off Nigel Farage too soon? Reform remains the most trusted party on immigration and is sharpening its economic pitch to working-class voters. Finally, Andy Burnham faces one of Labour’s biggest challenges: reforming the welfare system.

Andy Burnham has pulled the lever marked ‘Brexit’, threatening to reignite the wars of yesteryear. The soft left are delighted, but there’s unease in his cabinet. Is this a route back to a referendum, or just a meagre SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) deal? Or is Burnham already firing the opening shots of his election campaign — at the expense of the leave-voting areas he promised to win over? Has he already failed the Makerfield test?

Kemi Badenoch's attack on Reform UK was all about character and her attack on Labour was all about economics. In her speech at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, she said she would to scrap inheritance tax on family homes and that under a Conservative government, couples would be able to leave an extra £1m inheritance tax free to their children. Badenoch was withering about Nigel Farage and Reform UK, saying: "The circus goes on and on and it will never stop because this is who Reform are — so to those who say ‘unite the right’, we are not uniting with that.” We look at the Conservatives' electoral strategy, their prospects — especially compared with a year ago — and the vibes among their MPs.

The Labour Party is jubilant. Andy Burnham has fired the starting gun for the next general election with one of the most consequential conference speeches in recent memory. He used it to set out a series of major proposals, including an end to the triple lock, the abolition of first-past-the-post and closer ties with Europe. At the heart of his national project is a care service free at the point of use. Burnham has set out a vision that promises to put Britain on a different road. But can he persuade the country to buy into it?