Show Notes
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence as a dominant buyer, and the growth of renewables have reshaped oil’s geopolitical and economic role.
Hosts:
Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Guest:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan
Mentioned on the Episode:
“Outlook for Energy Demand,” International Energy Agency (IEA)
Ignacio Presno and Andrea Prestipino, “Oil Price Shocks and Inflation in a DSGE Model of the Global Economy,” Federal Reserve
John Kehoe, “Iran War Oil Inflation is a Nightmare for RBA,” Financial Review
Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released!
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
More from The Spillover
Brazil’s runoff is a dead heat, but markets are betting that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will win and finally rein in the country’s debt. This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and CFR Senior Vice President Shannon O’Neil unpack why voters and investors want different things from Brazil’s leadership, and what this election could signal for Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and the region at large.
With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session. They warn that a 2011-style standoff could unfold if political brinkmanship and a lack of serious effort to stabilize the country’s debt trajectory continue.
This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” economies, OpenAI’s funding crisis, the AI IPO race, the Iran war, and more.
This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve on inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces, and the role of AI in monetary policymaking.
This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the escalating geopolitical headwinds the region faces.