Why the Oil Shock Could Trigger a Global Recession | Weekly Roundup

In this episode, we explore the fog of war in markets, where geopolitics and volatility scramble investors’ assumptions.

Quinn and Felix break down the macro landscape, analyzing war narratives, energy shocks, and shifting expectations for growth, jobs, and Fed policy.

We debate oil spikes, dollar strength, bonds, gold, options positioning, and hidden risks from agriculture to private credit. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Intro

(02:46) Iran War Update

(08:08) Jobs Data, Bonds and Economic Deterioration

(15:22) Asymmetric Iran Impact - US vs Europe/Asia

(21:30) Market Structure - Everyone Owns Puts

(26:35) Ads (Arkham)

(27:23) How Will Iran War Impact Rates and the Economy?

(36:21) SPR Drawdown and Trump’s Strategic Position

(47:19) People Ignoring Agriculture Complex

(51:45) Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 in NYC (March 24–26)

› Use code FORWARD200 for $200 off

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-nyc-2026

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/14CFRydeUqk52UXPBW30wt-rcK5tuL-oK/view?usp=sharing

SPONSORS

› ARKHAM

Arkham is a crypto. exchange and blockchainanalytics platform that allows traders and investors to look. inside the wallets of the besttraders, largest funds, and most influential players in crypto — and act on that information.

Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks

Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to. buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.