DHUnplugged #803: The Thucydides Trap

- Happy Memorial Day

- A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh - good luck fella, you are going to need it sir.

- The new transient inflation.

- Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs...

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Happy Memorial Day - A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh - good luck fella, you are going to need it - The new transient inflation - Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs...

Markets - Starting to come in a bit..... - Yield curve steepening - potential for a hike over cuts - YIELDS! - Fuels running low - we have the list

OH MY... - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to around 5.14%, putting it at its highest level since the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis - Bets are pricing in the increasingly possibility of it reaching 5.5% to 6%, which would mark the highest levels since late 1999 - 30-Year mortgage near 6.35% (average) - DOWN from 6.91% at start of 2026 30-Year Yield Bored of Boards - The Board of Peace - remember that one? That was established in 2025 with 15+ countries that pitched in $1 billion for permanent seat - Indefinitely chaired by President Trump, the governing board is a mix of U.S. officials and prominent American businessmen. - So much for the peace part of that.... - Now we hear about the Board of Investment ---The US and China are discussing a mechanism for fast-tracking some Chinese investment deals and a reduction in tariffs on non-critical goods. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned a "Board of Investment" that will be responsible for investment in non-sensitive areas. - The idea of the "Board of Investment" is to have a mechanism that could allow deals that wouldn’t need to be referred to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. - In other words - working outside of the established channels that primary function is to determine whether these transactions pose risks to U.S. national security.

IRAN - On and off as usual - Cancelled a scheduled bombing? - President Trump speaking with reporters says he will know "soon" if U.S. needs to give Iran another big hit; says Gulf states are helping with negotiations; says Iran keeps agreeing to things and changing their mind; says Iran has 2-3 days to make a deal - This is the parental attempt to manupluate a child - I am going to count to THREE.... 1-2-3-4-5-6

China Trip - Chinese President Xi Jinping warned U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday that the U.S. and China “will have clashes and even conflicts” if the long-standing issue of Taiwan’s independence is mishandled. - Speaking just ahead of Trump, Xi noted the global attention on the meeting, and said a major question for the two countries was whether they could avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” according to an official English translation of his remarks broadcast by CCTV. - The Thucydides Trap refers to how tensions historically between a rising and ruling power have often resulted in a war.

Some Observations - Veggie Prices are off the charts --- Cauliflower $9, Carrots $6 small bag (not organic) - - Favorite produce store noticed things going bad.... Realized that people are not buying stuff

PPI Inflation - HOTTTTTTTT - Headline MoM: +1.4% - YoY: +6.0% - Core PPI (ex food & energy): about +1.0% MoM - Energy was a big part, but services also saw a large move - Highest monthly increase since march 2022 --- In reaction bonds are selling off - highest on 10 and 30 year since March 2024 (10 YR Broke above 4.65)

Outbreak - An Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has been declared a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization - 80 deaths were attributed to the disease. - Outbreak does not meet pande