That Backyard Property Podcast

Cup Day Rate Hike Odds Jumped to 41%, What Borrowers Should Do NOW | Michael Killiner

That Backyard Property Podcast

Show Notes

Book a consult with Michael: https://calendly.com/d/cwrg-969-cjc

The Reserve Bank has not decided yet, but the market odds of a Melbourne Cup Day hike just jumped from 27% to 41%. In this mini episode, Michael Killiner reads the bond market before the RBA speaks and gives his call on whether rates rise again on 3 November.

Michael explains how bond yields set your fixed rate, why the US 10-year above 5% matters here, what soft jobs data and a Deputy Governor warning really mean, and why youth unemployment is the hidden cost of a cooling market.

Essential listening for borrowers and investors who want to understand where their rate is heading next.

🔔 Subscribe and leave a comment with your questions -- we build episodes around what YOU want to know.

General advice only and not personal advice. CRN 485467 ------------------------------------------------------------ In this episode: • Fixed rates follow the bond market, not the cash rate. If investors sell and a $100 bond drops to $95, its yield jumps from 5% to around 5.3%, and banks fund fixed loans off those longer term yields. • The US 10-year yield went above 5%, its highest since 2017, and Australia's sits around 5.25%. Sticky inflation, heavy government borrowing and higher oil prices are the drivers. • Markets calmed after soft jobs data, then the RBA pushed back. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said inflation looks materially worse than forecast in August, lifting the odds of a Cup Day hike to 41%. • Unemployment rose to 4.7%, but full-time jobs rose 34,000 while part-time jobs fell 73,000. Youth unemployment is 11.1%, and it can cut first year earnings by around 8%. • Michael's call has changed. A November hike is now close to a coin flip, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, with cuts unlikely before late 2027. • Someone borrowing $600K at a 3% buffer could borrow about $657K at a lender using 2%, and new investors lose the tax relief that softens rate rises, so stress test on the pre-tax cost.

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Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@ThatBackyardPropertyPodcast Instagram: https://instagram.com/backyardpropertypod?igsh=MWhkOWx5YzJxdDc3ag== Website: https://tuskfinance.com.au

Connect with Michael: Facebook: https://facebook.com/tuskfinancemk Instagram: https://instagram.com/mortgageswmichael LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/michaelkilliner TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@backyardpropertypodcast Tusk Finance: [email protected]

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Chapters: (0:00) Cup Day hike odds and four takeaways (1:57) Bond yields explained simply (3:37) Why US yields move your fixed rate (5:12) Markets calm, then the RBA pushes back (6:46) Unemployment hits 4.7% (8:00) Youth unemployment by region (9:06) The long scar of youth unemployment (10:18) Michael's November rate call (12:02) Borrowing power and lender buffers (13:26) Why new investors feel hikes harder (14:50) Fixed or variable right now (15:40) Four step plan before 3 November

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Produced by Podwave Studios: https://www.podwavestudios.au

#ThatBackyardPropertyPodcast #PropertyPodcast #RBA #InterestRates #CashRate #BondMarket #NegativeGearing #PropertyInvesting #MortgageBroker #TuskFinance

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