Show Notes
Welcome to the Global Gambit 2025 - after some minor time off, we're back with more conversations and content, including more from me. This time starting with the 5 biggest geopolitical risks and themes in 2025!
This time Pyotr discusses the major geopolitical risks and themes that could shape 2025, including the implications of Donald Trump's return to power, the ongoing US-China strategic competition, the autocratic relations involving Russia and Iran, the rise of political violence and extremism, and the increasing risks associated with technology and AI. Each of these themes is explored in depth, highlighting the interconnectedness of global events and the potential consequences for international stability.
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More from The Global Gambit
Weeks after signing a sweeping sanctions law against Russia’s energy revenues, Donald Trump has struck a deal to buy Russian diesel, announced while his envoys sat down with Ukrainian officials to discuss ending the war. Trump calls it a win. In Moscow, it looks like something else entirely.
Ukraine has transformed Russia’s vast geography from a source of strategic depth into a growing vulnerability. Its long-range drones are striking oil refineries, supply lines and military infrastructure, while Crimea is becoming increasingly difficult for Moscow to defend and sustain.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has done more than redraw Europe’s security map. It has exposed the limits of military alliances—and triggered a potentially dangerous chain reaction far beyond the battlefield.
General Ben Hodges says Russia is already at war with Europe. Not with missiles striking NATO cities, but through drones, sabotage and attacks designed to frighten populations and weaken support for Ukraine. So why are European governments still reluctant to impose meaningful consequences?
Iran has been militarily devastated — and yet, six months on, it may be winning. General David Petraeus argues that Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has become a "weapon of mass disruption" more powerful than the nuclear program the war was meant to destroy.