Show Notes
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📄 OVERVIEW In this news episode of HashrateUp, Jesse breaks down what may be the first-ever Bitcoin hashrate bear market — and the structural force behind it: the AI pivot pulling power away from mining for good.
Starting with a Hashrate Index update at $31.25/PH/day, Jesse walks through the -10% difficulty drop (with a +5.83% adjustment incoming), the 4CP season, and Texas summer curtailment driving the volatility. But the bigger story is structural: public miners are no longer maximizing hashrate at all costs — they're deciding how much of their power should stay on Bitcoin versus shift to AI and HPC.
From there the episode opens into the policy and energy picture reshaping the industry: ERCOT's newly approved Batch Zero framework, 438 GW of data center interconnection requests (5x Texas's all-time peak demand), Microsoft's 2 GW West Texas AI campus, FERC ordering grid operators to fast-track large loads, and PJM's $23B warning as wholesale power costs jump 75% year over year. Plus Oman's mandatory national mining pool, Hive's $220M sovereign AI deal, and why Jesse thinks Luxor's forward hashrate market may be mispriced — a trade he's tempted to fade.
The throughline: hashrate may simply not come back this cycle. As more companies pivot to AI, the miners who survive will be the ones who already think like power developers — and that power-first playbook is becoming a real competitive edge.
⏱ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 – Intro & Hashrate Index update — $31.25/PH/day 1:17 – 4CP season, Texas curtailment & the -10% difficulty drop 2:27 – The AI pivot: every article is an AI story 3:33 – ERCOT Batch Zero & 438 GW of data center requests 7:10 – Microsoft's 2GW West Texas AI campus & FERC fast-tracking 9:27 – Oman launches a mandatory national mining pool 11:09 – Sponsor: Luxor & the forward hashrate market 14:49 – Bitcoin miners, AI re-pricing & the first hashrate bear market 18:08 – Data centers blocked & PJM's $23B power cost warning 20:17 – The power-first playbook as a miner's edge
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#BitcoinMining #Hashrate #AIPivot #ERCOT #Hashprice #HashrateUp
More from HashrateUp - A Bitcoin Mining Podcast
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Public Bitcoin miners shed about 75 EH/s in the first half of 2026, roughly $1.5 billion worth of mining hardware, as their power moves to AI. In this NEWS episode, Jesse breaks down who is leaving, where the hashrate is going and what it means for the miners who stay.
Cheap power means nothing if the government turns against you. Giannis Andreou, CEO of Bitmern Mining, started hosting Bitcoin miners in the UAE on agricultural power below 6¢/kWh, was forced out when the government banned that power, moved to Ethiopia, and is now watching the same story repeat as the Ethiopian government takes over mining and large operators pack up and leave.
Texas is ending 4CP. The incentive that saved flexible miners roughly $50,000 per MW per year is likely in its final season, and ERCOT is moving toward 12CP by 2028. Haley Thomson, Director of Energy at Luxor, explains what that means for Bitcoin miners and who ends up paying for the grid.Haley breaks down how 4CP actually works, why firm loads are pushing for change, and how 18+ GW of new battery storage has compressed capacity prices across ERCOT. We also cover why Bitcoin mining is close to the perfect grid-balancing load, how batteries and miners compare as grid assets, and how Luxor performed what's likely the first 4CP curtailment of GPUs in ERCOT.We also walk through the Luxor Energy dashboard live, from tracking load against breakeven to iMiner underclocking, 4CP buffer settings and what it really costs to be online during a peak. At the time of recording, 4CP season 2026 was likely already over.This episode is not sponsored by Luxor. Nothing discussed is financial advice. Do your own diligence before making energy or mining decisions.Guest: Haley Thomson, Director of Energy at Luxor TechnologyLuxor Energy: https://luxor.tech/energyHaley on Hashrate Index: https://hashrateindex.com/blog/author/haley/Luxor: https://luxor.techTimestamps:0:00 Intro0:45 Can AI provide grid flexibility?1:31 The first GPU 4CP curtailment in ERCOT3:45 What 4CP is worth: ~$50K per MW per year6:02 How 4CP works and who pays for the grid8:54 Why Bitcoin mining is the perfect flexible load11:45 Adding 60 GW of renewables: the transmission bottleneck14:00 Why firm loads want 4CP gone16:43 How miners lower off-peak energy prices20:57 Renewables, congestion and transmission costs24:54 12CP explained: what changes for miners29:29 Curtailing at $0 power: the solar mismatch31:04 How 18 GW of batteries reshaped ERCOT36:22 Battery vs Bitcoin mine39:10 Capex: batteries vs hydro vs air-cooled mining41:49 Luxor Energy dashboard walkthrough43:54 iMiner: raising breakeven from $75 to $90/MWh45:28 4CP buffer settings and risk48:58 What missing a 4CP peak really costs51:54 The AI pivot and tier-zero data centers55:11 Where to find Haley and Luxor EnergySponsored by:Altair Technology. ASIC hardware, replacement parts and mining infrastructureCode: HASHRATEUPhttps://altairtech.io/aff/125/HashrateUp Hardware Deals: https://t.me/hashrateupFree 5-Day Bitcoin Mining Course: https://hashrateup.com/newsletter-sign-up/#BitcoinMining #ERCOT #4CP #LuxorEnergy #HashrateUp
Matteo Spinosa, founder and CEO of Doefin, built the first accessible prediction market for Bitcoin miners to hedge difficulty. Doefin lets miners and traders take a directional view on network hashrate — or lock in revenue certainty before difficulty spikes — using a Polymarket-style venue where price equals probability.