Two Weeks of Nvidia Angst; Stocks and Real Estate; Warming Relations with India?; Labubu and Soft Power Exports
Sharp China with Bill BishopShow Notes
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of news on Nvidia that came during the podcast’s vacation, including reports the company was summoned to meeting with the Cyberspace Administration of China, sources saying the same regulators have warned PRC companies against purchasing the H-20 chips, and news that the US is now granting licenses to sell H-20 chips to PRC companies in exchange for 15% of China chip revenue. Topics include: Jensen Huang’s successful lobbying, criticism of the 15% tax, questions about the motivation in Beijing, and thoughts on the near future in Washington. From there: Checking in with the real estate market and stock market as Beijing pledges more support for real estate and the SSE Index hits a 10-year high. At the end: Liu Jianchao is reportedly under investigation, Bao Fan has reportedly been released, India and China move to improve relations in the face of US tariffs, and an email about the Labubu phenomenon and PRC soft power exports
More from Sharp China with Bill Bishop
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of proposed export controls from Beijing on AI related technologies, solar components, and machinery, as well as continued angst surrounding Japan’s rare earth access. Then: Reactions to strong Q3 GDP numbers in the PRC, continued stock market struggles, questions about GDP targets, and speculation about the agenda for next week’s Fifth Plenum. At the end: The EU signals a willingness to continue protectionist measures in new sectors, a report on new investment deals between the US and China, a potential Putin-Xi-Trump, sanctions on China’s version of Y Combinator, and a Politico report on OpenAI’s suddenly restrained export control lobbying, which spawns a variety of thoughts on the state of US chip policy.
On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an extended survey of EU-PRC trade dynamics in the wake of an eventful week. Topics include: a deal on hybrid exports that may have averted a trade war, potential loopholes that may complicate the effectiveness of that reform, the tools proposed by France and Germany that may have forced a compromise, tensions that remain unresolved as the EU Council meets later this week, and a word on currency reforms as the PBOC rejects international methods for assessment. From there: Holiday spending per trip hits a four-year low amid analysis that suggests debt may be constraining stimulus measures. At the end: reactions to a report on Xi’s rest breaks at the White House, Xi succession questions, a report on the F-35 mishap, and speculating on the future of US-China relations and whether the current administration has passed peak China dove.
On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through Xi Jinping’s trip to Washington last week, including low expectations that were met, lots of pageantry in between, why both sides are incentivized to preserve stability for now, and how Mao Zedong’s writing on “strategic stalemate” may inform Xi’s understanding of the current moment. From there: A Taiwan weapons controversy, panda deliverables, and thoughts on Xi’s plan to recruit 100,000 young Americans to study in the PRC over the next five years. At the end: Shared language on Iran, limited progress on AI, trolling intrigue in the East Room and at the National Archives, new Bloomberg reporting on travel restrictions for AI talent and the continued tax crackdown, and more signals that the central government recognizes the economy is struggling.
On today’s show Andrew and Bill discuss Xi Jinping’s visit to the United States and what to expect in Washington D.C. this week. First: Reactions to the meeting between Scott Bessent and He Lifeng in New York City Sunday, including outstanding questions about the “hotline” that was mooted for AI, details that remain fuzzy on the board of trade that’s been “operationalized,” and lingering rare earths frustration that may or may not delay an extension of the Busan truce. Then: Xi’s agenda in D.C., why asymmetric pageantry is fine, the PRC business delegation that failed to materialize, questions about Taiwan, Iran and Chinese automakers, and a note on Min Zin as he remains detained in China. At the end: Protesters and counter-protesters in New York City, the September Politburo brings the official expulsion of Generals Zhang and Liu, and evidently unfounded Xi rumors make their triumphant return at the BRICS Summit in India last week.
On today’s show Andrew and Bill look at several dimensions of the PRC’s approach to AI. First: The various reasons a push for an agreement with U.S. labs to “pace” AI development is unlikely to bear fruit and the history of the CPC’s approach to control over technology. Then: The head of the MSS offers a view into CPC concerns around political security risks and data risks, while Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei proposes a misguided framework for forcing Chinese compliance with a slowdown agreement. From there: The U.S. reiterates its complaints about Chinese companies conducting “industrial-scale” distillation of U.S. AI models, while Anthropic suggests sensitive PRC data was shared with Claude. At the end: A law broadening exit bans goes live, the New York Times reports Chinese social media “getting dark,” while the Wall Street Journal highlights an influencer scandal captivating netizens.