Show Notes
Description:
Intelligence failures make headlines. Intelligence successes rarely do — which is exactly the problem when trying to understand how the West actually predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and what it can and can't tell us about Putin's next move.
In this conversation, I'm joined by Charles Finfrock — a former CIA officer with 18 years of experience across the Middle East, Europe, and Asia — to examine how intelligence assessments are actually built. Why there's a critical difference between a "secret" that can be stolen and a "mystery" that even Putin himself may not have resolved, how human sources, satellite imagery, and signals intelligence get fused into a single judgment, and why getting Russia's 2022 invasion right was a genuine intelligence success even if it couldn't prevent the war.
We also discuss Russia's escalating willingness to target Western and dual citizens on NATO soil, Ukraine's campaign against Russian commanders and energy infrastructure, and the historical pattern behind strategic surprise — from Stalin's refusal to believe Sorge's warnings to October 7th. If Russia is preparing for another confrontation, the intelligence may already be there. The harder question is whether anyone is willing to believe it. Subscribe to Substack Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin
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