Show Notes
🛠 SPONSORED BY - Luxor – Mining software, firmware & hashrate tools https://luxor.tech/ - Altair Technology – ASIC hardware, replacement parts & mining infrastructure Code: HASHRATEUP https://altairtech.io - SoloMining – Home & solo mining made easy Code: HASHRATEUP https://solomining.de
🔗 LINKS FROM THIS EPISODE - Hashrate Index: https://hashrateindex.com/ - Kaan Farahani (X): https://x.com/brightsideBTC - Luxor Bitcoin mining services: [email protected] or https://luxor.tech
📄 OVERVIEW In this episode of HashrateUp, Jesse sits down with Kaan Farahani, Research Associate at Hashrate Index (Luxor), for a full data-driven pulse check on Bitcoin mining.
Starting with a breakdown of Luxor's full-stack platform (pool, firmware, hardware trading, hashrate forward contracts, and ERCOT power services), Kaan and Jesse dig into the hard numbers: Bitcoin price fell from a $125K all-time high to the low $60Ks, USD hashprice hit a fresh all-time low of $27.74/PH/day in June 2026, and network difficulty has now declined for the first-ever recorded bear market in hashrate — down 12.3% year-to-date after peaking in October 2025.
The conversation shifts to forward markets, where Kaan unpacks two years of hashrate forward contract data — nearly $300M in trading volume in 2025 alone. The headline finding: every rolling hedge strategy, regardless of duration or denomination, has outperformed spot Bitcoin mining since the 2024 halving. Over the trailing 12 months specifically, dollar-denominated hedges beat spot by up to 9%, while Bitcoin-denominated hedges lagged — a direct result of the ongoing AI/HPC compute competition for power and its effect on network difficulty.
Jesse and Kaan also debate why the forward market is currently pricing in a return to 1+ zettahash of network hashrate by October 2026, despite AI/HPC infrastructure buildout showing no signs of slowing — and close out with a look at ERCOT's 4CP summer curtailment season and its seasonal drag on difficulty.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER This content is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Luxor or any Luxor employee to buy or sell any derivatives or other financial instruments in this or any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the derivatives laws of such jurisdiction.
There are risks associated with trading derivatives. Trading in derivatives involves risk of loss, loss of principal is possible.
🔗 RESOURCES 📲 HashrateUp Hardware Deals (Telegram): https://t.me/hashrateup 📩 Learn Bitcoin Mining (Free 5-Day Course): https://hashrateup.com/newsletter-sign-up/
#BitcoinMining #Hashprice #HashrateIndex #Luxor #MiningData #HashrateUp
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Texas is ending 4CP. The incentive that saved flexible miners roughly $50,000 per MW per year is likely in its final season, and ERCOT is moving toward 12CP by 2028. Haley Thomson, Director of Energy at Luxor, explains what that means for Bitcoin miners and who ends up paying for the grid.Haley breaks down how 4CP actually works, why firm loads are pushing for change, and how 18+ GW of new battery storage has compressed capacity prices across ERCOT. We also cover why Bitcoin mining is close to the perfect grid-balancing load, how batteries and miners compare as grid assets, and how Luxor performed what's likely the first 4CP curtailment of GPUs in ERCOT.We also walk through the Luxor Energy dashboard live, from tracking load against breakeven to iMiner underclocking, 4CP buffer settings and what it really costs to be online during a peak. At the time of recording, 4CP season 2026 was likely already over.This episode is not sponsored by Luxor. Nothing discussed is financial advice. Do your own diligence before making energy or mining decisions.Guest: Haley Thomson, Director of Energy at Luxor TechnologyLuxor Energy: https://luxor.tech/energyHaley on Hashrate Index: https://hashrateindex.com/blog/author/haley/Luxor: https://luxor.techTimestamps:0:00 Intro0:45 Can AI provide grid flexibility?1:31 The first GPU 4CP curtailment in ERCOT3:45 What 4CP is worth: ~$50K per MW per year6:02 How 4CP works and who pays for the grid8:54 Why Bitcoin mining is the perfect flexible load11:45 Adding 60 GW of renewables: the transmission bottleneck14:00 Why firm loads want 4CP gone16:43 How miners lower off-peak energy prices20:57 Renewables, congestion and transmission costs24:54 12CP explained: what changes for miners29:29 Curtailing at $0 power: the solar mismatch31:04 How 18 GW of batteries reshaped ERCOT36:22 Battery vs Bitcoin mine39:10 Capex: batteries vs hydro vs air-cooled mining41:49 Luxor Energy dashboard walkthrough43:54 iMiner: raising breakeven from $75 to $90/MWh45:28 4CP buffer settings and risk48:58 What missing a 4CP peak really costs51:54 The AI pivot and tier-zero data centers55:11 Where to find Haley and Luxor EnergySponsored by:Altair Technology. ASIC hardware, replacement parts and mining infrastructureCode: HASHRATEUPhttps://altairtech.io/aff/125/HashrateUp Hardware Deals: https://t.me/hashrateupFree 5-Day Bitcoin Mining Course: https://hashrateup.com/newsletter-sign-up/#BitcoinMining #ERCOT #4CP #LuxorEnergy #HashrateUp