Show Notes
Everyone arrived in Monaco certain the market was going one way. Joachim Racz, CEO at Ageas Re, spent the week telling brokers that the ask went 20%, then 15%, then 10% in about ten days, and there's a reason it stops somewhere. He calls the last four years hazard-driven over-oscillation — reinsurance repricing down as fast as it repriced up, with IFRS 17 now sitting underneath the whole thing like a floor nobody wants to be first to test.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN: Why pricing to a 10% ROE in 2026 is a worse trade than the identical number in 2021, and what 350 basis points of risk-free rate does to the shareholder maths How onerous contract reporting under IFRS 17 changes soft-market behaviour, and why 2027 is the first cycle where the loss shows up on day one rather than 31 December What four consecutive loss-light years do to everyone's view of what they were actually pricing for Where the model gaps are already showing — Portuguese windstorm, European wildfire — and what that means for perils nobody rated as lead Why AI investment across re/insurance is real but slow, and how a nine-month internal approval swallows a one-week build A specific thing to watch for yourself this week: whether the tone on Wednesday evening matches the tone on Sunday
OUTLINE & TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Intro00:37 A strange market, and brokers testing 20%, then 15%, then 10%01:53 Why 2021 pricing doesn't mean 2021 economics03:02 IFRS 17, onerous contracts, and the floor nobody wants to test04:56 Hazard-driven over-oscillation, and the cost of wild swings07:07 What you can and can't blame on climate change08:34 Secondary perils and the Portuguese windstorm nobody modelled09:43 5% of staff budget on AI, and nine months waiting on IT10:59 Disruptors, cybersecurity, and five points off the combined ratio12:53 Sunday's tone versus Wednesday's: what to watch this week
EPISODE LINKS: Joachim's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joachim-racz-a11401/ Ageas Re: https://www.ageas-re.com/
CONNECT WITH US:Say Hello: [email protected]: https://www.supercede.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/supercedehqX: https://twitter.com/SupercedeHQYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupercedeHQRSS Feed: https://anchor.fm/s/7e741c8c/podcast/rss
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