Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower Group
Other People's Money with Max WietheShow Notes
Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
Follow Eric on X: https://x.com/ericwallerstein
Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe
Follow Other People’s Money on:
Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M
Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi
YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR
JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer
02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields
05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate
07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks
08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility
11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom
14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes
17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break
18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending
20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag
23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup
25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis?
26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention
31:20 Korea Silicon Boom
35:43 Europe Under Pressure
39:25 Middle East Outlook
43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices
48:34 China Oil Strategy
52:10 Big Calls Wrap
More from Other People's Money with Max Wiethe
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/
James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples.
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
Precious metal and base metal prices have soared as have many mining stocks, but despite this, Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital says that the industry feels closer to left for dead than euphoric. He explains why that setup and the consistency of the mispricing in the sector brought them to launch a fund with the help of mining expert Darren McLean allowing them to take concentrated investments in the assets they think the market is overlooking while running lower net exposure. He also discusses how they think about hedging in the sector, why they take a bottom-up approach to portfolio construction, and how they approach short and long activism in the sector.